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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (20597)	6/21/2001 8:10:31 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Respond to of 24042

Almost all the big F.O. carriers are projecting substantially lower capex for 2002 than in 2001. Until traffic starts filling existing capacity and the carriers get a bit more robust, the JDSU's of the world will struggle. Not a huge compelling need at this moment to buy more devices to get another gadzillion packets to travel on a strand of fiber. IMO, when the surviving carriers start bulking up utilization would be the time to look hard at JDSU for the long-term. Until then, there may be more downside risk, even from these depressed levels. Even the hard assets that JDSU owns aren't necessarily worth book value if the factories and equipment are underutilized for an extended period of time, or if the next generation of optical modules, whatever it may be, functionally obsoletes existing tooling in components factories. I think we are in for a multi-year recession in F.O. carrier capex from everything I've come across of late. I'd wait until the carriers get a bit healtier before jumping into the tail end of the telecoms food chain.