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To: LemonHead who wrote (32988)	6/21/2001 9:21:42 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 70070

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts May 2001 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.46 biz.yahoo.com SAN JOSE, Calif., June 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $704 million in orders in May 2001 and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.46, according to the May 2001 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.46 means that $46 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product shipped for the month. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in May 2001 was $704 million. The bookings figure is three percent below the revised April 2001 level of $723 million and 75 percent below the $2.78 billion in orders posted in May 2000. The three-month average of worldwide shipments in May 2001 was $1.52 billion. The shipments figure is nine percent below the revised April 2001 level of $1.66 billion and is 30 percent below the May 2000 shipments level of $2.16 billion. ``While the book-to-bill ratio is slightly elevated from the prior month, both shipments and orders continued to decline,'' said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. ``It is likely that the prospects for sustained year-over-year improvements in monthly shipments are three to four quarters away. On a worldwide basis, we currently anticipate a 30 to 32 percent annual decline in the semiconductor equipment market in 2001. While this severe drop presents a painful environment for SEMI member companies, this would still result in the second best revenue year in the history of our industry.'' The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill December 2000 2,389.5 2,372.3 0.99 January 2001 2,308.4 1,854.2 0.80 February 2001 2,279.3 1,610.9 0.71 March 2001 (final) 2,020.2 1,197.3 0.59 April 2001 (revised) 1,657.2 722.9 0.44 May 2001 (prelim.) 1,515.2 704.4 0.46 The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data. The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves. The June 2001 Express Report is scheduled for publication on July 23, 2001 (subject to change). Based in San Jose, Calif., SEMI is an international industry association serving more than 2,400 companies participating in the semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit SEMI on the Internet at www.semi.org. SOURCE: SEMI

To: LemonHead who wrote (32988)	6/22/2001 4:18:57 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70070

Hi Keith, The numbers look terrible, but that is what everyone expected. The only good spin they can put on it is that the rate of decline in bookings has slowed. They can also try to emphasis the fact that these are old numbers and if a change is occurring it may not be showing up yet. Shipments % Bookings % Book-to-Bill change change December 2000 2,389.5 2,372.3 0.99 January 2001 2,308.4 4 1,854.2 28 0.80 February 2001 2,279.3 1 1,610.9 15 0.71 March 2001 (final) 2,020.2 13 1,197.3 35 0.59 April 2001 (revised) 1,657.2 22 722.9 66 0.44 May 2001 (prelim.) 1,515.2 9 704.4 3 0.46 I found this on another thread. It adds a bit of more color. messages.yahoo.com From a practical perspective, I would guess that the market will sell off some time tommorow. Tommorow will be day three of the current COMPX rally. Most rallies do not last more than three days in a row. The FED meeting is next week, so traders will move to the sideline in advance of this. They have some pretty decent gains the last few days, so time to book them in case the Fed disappoints. Currently, my COMPX system indicates that we are near term overbought. I don't have an aggressive sell though, just expecting profit taking. A break of 2000 would signal a possible visit to the April low as the support at 1980 will surely by tested and probably break given the current rash of earning misses.