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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18524)	6/21/2001 8:06:23 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Gotcha! I think I just finished reading 4 or so messages that were claiming the book/bill was bullish, so I picked your post apart incorrectly! Zeev, one thing is for certain.. Being a bear in this market has taken alot of life out of me.. Trying to apply fundamentals has proven to be very difficult despite most of the gloom and doom scenarios playing out exactly as the most bearish of bears would predict.. Most of the semis closed after hours trading at or below their lows for the day today.. I just wonder how much of todays trading was painted tape in order to bail before the MU/bookbill numbers.. I guess we find out by 4pm tomorrow and my money is still betting that we break 2000 before the fed has their say : ) ... a very shiny coin gave me that prediction when it landed on heads!

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18524)	6/21/2001 9:15:59 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 30051

SmartMoney.com - Stock Watch Micron Delivers Another Bombshell By Monica Rivituso It's been a bad week for memory-chip makers. And that's putting it mildly. On Wednesday, Infineon Technologies AG (NYSE:IFX - news), Europe's second-largest chip maker, issued a shocking warning, saying that fiscal third-quarter revenue would come in 30% lower than last quarter and that the company would post a massive loss instead of a gain. Then on Thursday, Micron Technology (NYSE:MU - news), the largest U.S.-based maker of memory chips, released third-quarter results after the close that made things look even worse. Micron, which makes dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), lost 53 cents a share, compared with earning 47 cents a year ago. That stunned Wall Street, which was expecting a loss of 15 cents a share, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Net sales were $818 million, roughly 47% lower than the $1.55 billion Micron posted last quarter. The company was hamstrung with too much inventory at the end of the quarter. As such, its loss from continuing operations included a pretax inventory write-down of about $260 million. Micron shares, which closed 2.4% higher on Thursday, fell about 3.0% in after-market trading. The big problem was deteriorating prices for memory chips, which are mostly used in PCs and communications devices. Because those markets are still sluggish, price per megabit of memory declined 35% from last quarter. Consequently, net sales from the company's semiconductor operations fell 24% sequentially. Micron said the steep drop in prices was partially offset by an approximate 20% increase in megabit shipments. Meanwhile, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC - news), another stock that moves in lockstep with the health of the PC market, slipped roughly 2%. Management's commentary on its conference call with analysts was mixed. End demand is still failing to meet expectations, they said, and PC customers are cautious in their ordering. Communications customers continue to grapple with their own excess inventory issues. The good news is that Micron thinks Microsoft's new operating system, Windows XP, should be a big driver of memory-chip sales. That's because XP will gobble up memory. To make it run at optimal levels, a computer will have to have more than 200 megabits of memory. It's safe to say that no one was really expecting much in the way of positive news from Micron. Ahead of the report, analysts were trimming estimates on Micron, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD - news), suggesting that PC demand hasn't improved to the extent that some were previously expecting. ``In the interest of the fundamental outlook, we are running out of adjectives to describe how bad this current DRAM pricing environment is,'' said Goldman Sachs analyst Joe Moore in a report Thursday ahead of Micron's results. In fact, this area of the semiconductor industry is facing its worst year ever, according to Gartner Dataquest. The research firm released a report Thursday saying that world-wide DRAM chip revenue would fall 55.5% to $14 billion from $31.5 billion last year. The big question is whether investors will take this latest bad news in stride. After all, Micron shares, which have traded between the low $30 and high $40 range so far this year, closed Thursday 69% off their 52-week high of $122.06. And one might hope that reflects a chip downturn that's already acknowledged as severe. Hope, however, doesn't have much currency in this market. biz.yahoo.com Ö¿Ö