To: PAUL ROBERTSON who wrote (10910 ) 6/21/2001 9:33:54 PM From: Ian@SI Respond to of 14638 Large-Cap Tech : Difficult to identify any overriding trend in the market. Clear that the telecom equipment space is the pariah of the technology sector right now. But now that sector CEOs are finally able to admit that the business is not coming back any time soon, may actually make sense to begin picking through the space in anticipation of a short-term bounce... Price action today in telecom and networking suggests that money managers are beginning to rebuild positions in large-cap technology, comfortable that the worst of the downward earnings/revenue revisions are in the past. These are the 3-5 year holders, the types of investors not detoured by the fact that CSCO earnings are projected to fall 29% in 2002 and that based on forward estimates the stock sports a corpulent p/e of 62. They have been through these cycles before, able to appreciate the cyclical nature of the business and that sustained growth brings money back to a stock almost as quickly as a short-squeeze. CEOs of these companies are doing everything required to prime the pumps for an expansion in EPS -- slashing headcount, writing off inventory, chopping down estimates. While management of expenses will begin to result in sequential EPS improvement by 2nd-half 2002, restoring revenue growth will prove a more formidable task. Top-line uncertainty will make the road to share price recovery a bumpy one, filled with intermittent earnings shortfalls, valuation driven downgrades, and persistent rumors of preannouncements... Net/net would expect several false starts in share prices of large-cap tech before the companies resume delivering upside earnings surprises and positive guidance. Buy-and-hold investors will be forced to stomach extreme volatility in their pursuit of long-term gains. More active accounts will attempt to manage some of the volatility by selling into failed technical breakouts and returning to the stocks at key support levels... Those investors seeking the uninterrupted share price appreciation formerly provided by tech should stay tuned to this page and In Play for identification of themes in the mid-cap space; recent examples include auto chain stocks, mining companies, steel producers, and medical instruments makers. They aren't sexy, but this is where the real growth opportunities are buried. -- Damon Southward, Briefing.com