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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwayanu who wrote (18547)	6/21/2001 11:09:55 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Unfortunately, I do not have a source for the raw monthly number, and these are actually upgraded as they go. At these levels ($700 MM) a single order of $100 MM (and these did not use to be rare) can skew the averages depending on "when" booked. Zeev

To: dwayanu who wrote (18547)	6/22/2001 8:00:12 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Re: "Given that the bookings figure is a trailing 3 month average, and given the very large drop in the average for April but the very small drop for May, I think that forces May's raw bookings to be much larger than April's." Nice try, but unfortunately there are not enough data to draw that conclusion. Your table has six unknowns and only four known pieces of data. That means that you could arbitrarily select any two numbers for April and May raw bookings, and you could always find a set of numbers for the preceding months that would make the math come out right. Besides your scenario for raw data (reproduced in the second column below), here are two of the many scenarios that would have May bookings below April: Dwayanu's Alternative Alternative Month Raw Bookings 3-Mth Avg Raw Bookings Raw Bookings #2 --------- ------------ --------- ------------ --------------- Dec 2,000 1,997 1,950 Jan 1,600 2,425 2,125 Feb 1,200 1,600 378 725 Mar 800 1,200 797 750 Apr 175 725 1,000 700 May 1,125 700 303 650 Now, before you tell me that bookings were unlikely to drop by a factor of six from January to February, I should point out that they were equally unlikely to jump by a factor of six from April to May. It is simply not possible to know from the published data whether May's raw bookings were higher, lower, or the same as April.