Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Making Money is Main Objective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lightwave51 who wrote (1423)	6/23/2001 10:39:35 PM
From: James1000	Respond to of 2155

I thought the worst case for Micron was -45 cents. It turned out to be -50 cents. Micron investors responded to this by buying more stock, so the price went up to $38.38. Memory prices for all sizes and types are still staying at extremely low very unprofitable levels, so earnings should be just as bad or worse next earnings report. According to expert analysis by Eric Ross, of Thomas Weisel Partners, MU stock is going up to $60 by November. Yahoo even translated this into "$$160". A Yahoo employee said "Hey if it can go to $60, then why not $160 in the new economy?". Thats not really what Yahoo said, but the analyst did say that demand will go up now because of back to school and holiday sales. He didn't note that during peak demand for gasoline, wholesale gas prices are going down, but he did say that it is a high risk investment, so do "not throw this into your Roth IRA" He went on to say this is "much more of a trade than an investment" Also, he said demand would increase in the next few months because "gee, I can get a computer for next to nothing now". Go to vision.yahoo.com to see this genius analyst on a Yahoo Finance video clip. Micron appears to have bad management too. Instead of reducing capacity and laying people off it is paying 1.8 billion this year to increase its product line and add to R&D. This is the kind of thing that makes companies bankrupt. The income statement is not good. Since 1996 the company has made about 650 million total, or about $1.10 per share. Compare that to VLO gas refiner. It has nearly the same share price but has made $6.90 per share in the same time period, and is expected to make twice that over the next two years, while Micron will be very lucky to break even. In a slightly oversupplied climate, instead of spending billions on additional output, VLO is reducing output. I plan to increase my short position on Micron from a whopping 20% of my portfolio to an even more whopping 30%. I'd consider selling in the low 20's but will most likely sell below the $20 level.