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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (48350)	6/22/2001 10:30:48 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AD, It may not be wise to base your short term trading decisions on mathematically challenged journalists. 1. Never forget that the numbers in the book to bill are 3 month moving averages. 2. See number 1. <g> +++++++++ Order info (3 month moving average) For December thru May. 2,372.3 December 1,854.2 January 1,610.9 February 1,197.3 March 722.9 April 704.4 May +++++++++++++++++ Looking at the moving averages implies (to me at least) that the plunge to the bottom of the cliff occurred in March where the one month moving average change was more than 25% or the prior moving average. We stayed down there in April, now having 2 low numbers in the moving average. May has completed the set. The May orders were substantially lower than the February numbers which they bumped out of the moving average. We now have 3 low booking numbers such that in June the comparison with March's bookings won't be as disastrous. So even without much growth in actual orders received during the month, I would expect to see some slight recovery in the orders number reported next month; and a major improvement in the BTB - primarily because billings are likely to continue falling for another couple months while orders recover moderately or stay close to the same. FWIW, Ian.