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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (18565)	6/22/2001 9:36:39 AM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

HALF EMPTY, HALF FULL, OR JUST HALF? There has been lots of speculation about what the BTB of the semi equip makers means. I would argue: -- no sign of a V-shaped bottom from last month -- at least not further down (in the most obvious dimension) -- as others (Zeev?) have pointed out, the big capex $$$ of INTC may be less present in the future -- probably nobody else in sight to take their place -- as a leading indicator of semi recovery, not much evidence of "leading" I suspect that the "heavy-hitter" analysts will find a way to pitch all this as: "the bottom is in, time to buy now". All that makes me want to wait for: -- a fallback to lower levels -- more tangible signs of a recovery than what we have just seen. Having said all that, it may well go the other way, of course! Namaste! Jim

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (18565)	6/22/2001 10:22:50 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Everyone? Seems like nearly everyone I read and listen too thinks the semis haven't bottomed yet. I've been through several of these semi cycles and this one feels like the bottom is settling in. The people I know in the industry are so gloomy right now (mostly sales people). They think it will take a year to get out of this mess. That's about the right response for me. Time to start nibbling. I am not going to wait for a 20% bounce and positives in the B2B to begin building positions. Good luck to you though.