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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (33003)	6/22/2001 11:35:04 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70273

They are working hard to try to talk the market up today. It is pulling back now in the morning counter rally. We need to reverse back up again in the next 30 minutes to re-test the highs of the day if this rally has staying power. ********************** 11:03 ET Fed: 25 or 50 bp : Beginning to see some profit taking in the financial stocks. Hearing that some holders exiting positions after major firm issues report suggesting that yesterday's stronger economic data tilts odds slightly in favor of a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed next week, vs the 50 bp move the market had been counting on. 11:23 ET Strong Groups : CLECs/Telecoms: MCLD (+15%), LVLT (+15%), XOXO (+10%); shorts being pushed out of positions for second day in a row... Optical Compents: AVNX (+23%), NUFO (+16%), OCPI (+15%), AGR.A (+13%). 10:18 ET Gilder Report : The June Gilder Technology Report is out; we're hearing that no companies were added to his list, but 360Networks (TSIX) was reportedly deleted. Gilder also made positive comments about Global Crossing (GX) as he has many times in the past. 10:18 ET Strong Groups : Wit SoundView positive call on JDSU (+8.8%) sparking interest in fiber-optics sector: AVNX (+16%), NUFO (+10%), OCPI (+7.8%), SCMR (+6.4%), CORV (+5.5%), AGR.A (+5.4%), CIEN (+4.4%)... Heavily shorted components suppliers so far the biggest beneficiaries of the call. 10:02 ET Oracle Corp (ORCL) 17.71 -0.19 (-1%): -- Technical -- Stumbles out of the starting gate like much of the software sector and continues to hold a negative bias but is once again approaching an important near term resistance at 18/18.5 (100 day simple ma and May high) which stymied the rally yesterday. Concern regarding a breach is that both intraday and daily indicators have already pushed into overextended territory although no signals have been generated. 09:40 ET Broadwing (BRW) 23.30 -0.15: Dain Rauscher initiated with a STRONG BUY-AGGRESSIVE and $29 target pre-open; says that BRW offers investors the stability of a well-run ILEC while gaining the potential upside of the volatile long-haul sector. 09:07 ET Robbie on Orphans : Hearing from sources at Robertson Stephens that the firm seeing value in the following telecom equipment "orphans" based on analysis of cash positions: Sycamore (SCMR 7.91), Corvis (CORV 3.52), Clarent (CLRN 7.70), and Cosine (COSN 2.10). 09:02 ET Nextel Comms (NXTL) 16.26: Hearing from sources at Wit SoundView that the firm upgraded NXTL to BUY from Hold based on valuation and improving fundamentals; said it has reduced growth, ARPU, and EBITDA margin forecasts, and model still suggests a year-end price target of $24. 09:00 ET Bank Favorites : Lehman thinks investors should be putting new money in large-cap banks going into Q2 earnings; firm likes C, WFC, FBF; expects group to be helped by perceived benefit of additional rate cuts and the expectation that the economy will turn soon. 08:59 ET ABN AMRO Strategy : ABN AMRO reduces overweight bet on equities as it changes its US economic call to a U-shaped recovery from a V; also sees recession in Japan and reduced growth in Euro area. Within regions; US equities upped to Overweight from Underweight, while Japan and Europe are cut to Underweight from Neutral and Overweight, respectively. 08:51 ET SoundView on Opticals : -- Update -- Hearing from sources at Wit SoundView that the firm did indeed upgrade Nortel (NT 8.45) to BUY from Hold (see 8:10 comment), saying that recent guidance reductions set the stage for gradual improvement. Upgraded JDS Uniphase (JDSU 10.91) to STRONG BUY from Buy, saying customer activity levels are unsustainably low and Sep qtr guidance will prove too low. The firm also upgraded Optical Communications (OCPI 10.56) to STRONG BUY from Buy, saying qtr is in-line. 08:21 ET QLogic (QLGC) 53.69: Thomas Weisel initiates coverage with a BUY rating and $60 target price. 08:18 ET Merrill on Comm ICs : Merrill Lynch remains cautious on communication ICs; firm did an inventory analysis on the sector and concluded that June qtr inventories will be flat with Mar, and that inventories in the sector would not return to normal until Q2 2002 in its most likely scenario, until Q1 2002 in its optimistic scenario, and early 2003 in its conservative scenario. 08:17 ET Micron Tech (MU) 37.71: Merrill Lynch reduces FY01 est. to ($0.22) from $0.17 and FY02 to $0.10 from $0.47 following disappointing MayQ report... Prudential calls qtr a mixed bag -- earnings missed, but inventory situation not as worrisome as expected; thinks cyclical bottom is near, which is when the stock should be bought. 08:13 ET Williams Comms (WCG) 2.84: Merrill Lynch reduces NT Accumulate and LT Buy ratings to NEUTRAL; signs of a slower economy continue and the market place for bandwidth remains difficult as evidenced most recently by the revised projections from Level 3 and Exodus. 07:47 ET AT&T (T) 20.90: Salomon Smith Barney expects company to announce a bundled LEC service at $70 per subscriber with bundled local, long distance, DSL and home wireless LAN. Thinks could be a positive for router suppliers CSCO and AVCI, as well as DSL gear supplier LU.