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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (11067)	6/22/2001 11:35:44 AM
From: Brad Davies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, welcome to WEBX. Regrettably, I have been short this stock for to long. I am not enjoying the ride!! Since I have had the benefit of your insight on many others, I thought I would share mine on this stock. My experience with this company, is as follows. 1. They were due to run out of cash by the end of June. I shorted in March based on my review of the balance sheet and my expectations about the company.. 2. In late May, to my surprise, they did a secondary and raised 22M at about 11.00 a share. At the time, the stock was trading close to 20.00. The secondary was done to existing shareholders, who were protecting their postion. 3. although some, (including Wit Soundview who just did an analyst report) believe they will turn cash flow positive, I do not buy it. Their burn rate last quarter was 10M, which means they bought themselves another 6 months in cash with the secondary. 3. To my further surprise, the stock only fell back a little on the news they were selling stock at 11.00. 4. I have watched the trading action on the stock on level 2 for some time, and I can tell you that the float is very tightly controlled by MM's. They will regularly paint the tape, and can move the stock up or down on very light volume. You may recall that I asked you about the matched trades that take place after the close, and what that meant. In my skeptical view, it is evidence that MM's are balancing their accounts after wash trading all day to take the stock to some particular point for close. These last few days have shown how masterful the MM's are on this one. If you follow the volume pattern, you will see that when they step back for a few minutes, volume drys up entirely, and the stock floats down slowly. 5. I have no idea how high they will take this stock, but I do know that it is not worth anything near what it is trading at. Good Luck

To: Tom Hua who wrote (11067)	6/22/2001 12:37:06 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 19633

No wiggle room later if they go 75bp now - max 50bp (put me down for that) with room to do a last 25bp in an emergency.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (11067)	6/22/2001 12:43:49 PM
From: xcr600	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Well I had a 5 martini lunch so put me down for a buck in cuts. <gggggg> Off to gamble.. err I mean trade.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (11067)	6/22/2001 12:47:12 PM
From: Zeddie88	Respond to of 19633

Tom, I dreamt of 75 last night and wasn't sure what to make of it. Put me down for 25 as a conservative figure. 50 would be a nice surprise. Sue