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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33007)	6/22/2001 1:46:31 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70280

We are and will be in the land of bounces for a while. The fundamentals haven't changed to support long runs to the upside, but prices.. especially in techs, are so depressed it doesn't take much to spark a rally. Look at NUFO today, only a nod from an analyst that its fair price might be higher and its off to the races... probably won't hold today's highs. Trading these bounces is tricky.. if the average run is 20% then one way to play them is to look at where the current inspiration recently botttomed, then look to get out before its 20% above that. Getting out is the key, as there will be plenty of opportunities to pick up 10% here and there before the long term trend changes where long postions for investment are the better choice. Jim

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33007)	6/22/2001 2:36:24 PM
From: mattie	Respond to of 70280

Could signal a bottom NYSE short interest rises to record level in June biz.yahoo.com

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33007)	6/22/2001 4:11:43 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70280

14:55 ET ****** Cisco Systems (CSCO) 18.04 +0.36: We are in the heart of warnings season for companies with a June quarter-end. With its July quarter-end, Cisco is therefore not a likely candidate for a near-term preannouncement, but the market is nevertheless buzzing with speculation about whether or not Cisco will have to warn eventually. Here are some pros and cons: Factors arguing against a warning: By most estimates, Cisco's enterprise business still accounts for the majority of revenues (probably 65-70%), and the enterprise market has held up much better than the imploding service provider business. Other enterprise-focussed networkers such as Extreme (EXTR) and Foundry (FDRY) have suggested that they can meet current Jun qtr guidance which call for roughly flat revenues. Though service provider business is terrible, Cisco's Cerent product competes in the relatively strong metro access space, and there has been widespread talk that its core router is regaining market share from Juniper (JNPR). Factors arguing for a warning: Anecdotes suggest that April was a good month for enterprise business, but May and June deteriorated. If so, Cisco's July quarter makes it even tougher to meet guidance as it doesn't include April. The service provider business is horrible. Even if its Cerent and core router products are gaining share, they are gaining share in a shrinking market, if warnings from the likes of Nortel (NT) and Juniper (JNPR) are any indication. International business is just over half of Cisco's revenue, and the deterioration on the margin appears to be coming primarily from Europe and Asia. Pricing pressure is becoming more of an issue, particularly in the service provider market, but in enterprise as well, with the "gray" market still awash in second-hand Cisco gear. Cisco guided Jul qtr revenues to flat to down 10% sequentially at the time of its last earnings conference call. With over five full weeks remaining in the quarter, it is highly probable that this guidance is still achievable, and a near-term warning is therefore unlikely. The real question is whether this guidance will be achievable with 2-3 weeks left in the quarter. Our guess is that the negatives outweigh the positives for Cisco and that a warning is a better-than 50/50 shot, and a best-case scenario at this point is probably that the company avoids a preannouncement by hitting the low end of the guidance range. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com