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To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/22/2001 2:29:19 PM
From: William JH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, I have a knack for shorting semi's just in front of a sector upgrade. I think I should give up. Nothing in this arena makes any sense to me. BWDIK? Best regards

To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/22/2001 3:26:27 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, Don't you have substantial "core" positions? I do.

To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/22/2001 3:38:00 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Caroline Humer Falling Orders Raise Questions About Chip Equipment Stocks By Caroline Humer Senior Writer 6/22/01 6:30 AM ET URL: thestreet.com Chip investors searching for signs of sector improvement in semiconductor equipment monthly orders instead found more despair Thursday. And that could hit the chip equipment stocks that have been rising on expectations of a rebound. The three-month average of worldwide bookings for May came in at $704 million, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, a trade group. The May figure is 3% off the revised April figure of $723 million and 75% below the year-earlier's $2.78 billion. The closely watched book-to-bill ratio was 0.46, meaning that $46 in new orders were received for every $100 worth of products shipped in the month. With semiconductor companies still struggling with weak demand, overcapacity, decreasing prices and steep inventories, investing in new technology and capacity has fallen to the wayside. Microprocessor giant Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), for instance, earlier this week delayed deciding whether to build a $3.5 billion plant in Israel, even as it maintained an overall capital spending budget of $7.5 billion for 2001. And until semiconductor revenues turn, Intel and other chipmakers won't be sending chip equipment manufacturers orders. So that means chip equipment revenues will remain flat at best. For investors, that makes putting money into these volatile stocks trickier than usual. While most agree that the cyclical semiconductor market will recover at some point in the next 18 months, investors who get in too early may have to wade through some sharp declines before getting to a payoff. Valuations Given current valuations, it's clear many investors are taking that risk. Prices on the chip equipment sector have been on a steady upward climb since December, with a few dips here and there. At these levels, the stocks are trading at fairly rich price-to-earnings ratios for 2001 and 2002. For instance, industry giant Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq) is expected to earn $1.06 in 2001 and $1.12 in 2002, meaning it's trading at 46 times 2001 earnings and 43 times 2002 earnings. KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) is expected to earn $1.85 in 2001 and $1.01 the year after, putting its 2001 P/E at 29 and 2002 P/E at 53. Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq) is expected to earn $1.47 this year and $1.66 next, so it's trading at 34 times 2001 earnings and 30 times 2002 earnings. But the earnings projections that back up these valuations are in danger. Earlier this week, semiconductor testing company Teradyne (TER:NYSE) said it would fall short of estimates this quarter and instead of breaking even would lose 5 cents to 10 cents a share. Its stock has lost 10% since then. Teradyne's loss may not have been a surprise, but it does signal exactly how weak demand in the semiconductor sector has become. Byron Walker, chip equipment analyst at UBS Warburg, believes more losses are coming in either the second or third quarter, and for more than just Teradyne. The Problem "The problem is people have directly moved toward quality with the least amount of fundamental technology risk, but the disconnect between that and earnings is large, because earnings are going south," Walker says. "In fact, more than most analysts believe, because if you look at First Call, there are very few analysts who have dialed in losses. We will see losses." The semiconductor industry hasn't finished bottoming, in part because it typically includes large inventory write-offs industrywide, he says. And while the companies are in the process of bottoming, Walker says, they aren't producing the cash that leads to capital equipment expenditures. One of the problems ahead is that it'll be tough for spending on chip equipment to match the record spending of 2000, which means the year-over-year comparisons aren't going to look good. The 87% increase in global semiconductor equipment revenue to $47.7 billion in 2000 -- the biggest ever -- won't repeat itself this year. SEMI on Thursday also lowered its outlook for 2001 and now expects a 30% to 32% decline compared with a 27% to 30% decline in revenue -- which will be the worst percentage decline on record. Fallen Down Orders have fallen off in part because some of the markets that drove the growth in 2000 have disappeared. Telecom spending, for instance, has all but dried up at the moment as large inventories and capital spending have decreased dramatically. Eric Ross, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners, says that in 2000, telecommunications accounted for about 28% of total semiconductor revenues and he expects it to make up 30% of 2001 revenues. Ross sees semiconductor equipment orders picking up in the fourth quarter as semiconductor companies start planning for equipment they'll need in 2002. Of course, that depends on the personal computer market recovering in the year's second half. Otherwise, the scenario gets pushed out further. And so do the chip equipment earnings that investors are paying for now.

To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/22/2001 5:05:23 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

14:14 ET Goldman on Semi Equip : Goldman Sachs comments on trading in semi equipment names: says that today's rally was expected given flattening in orders, but would now recommend taking short-term trading profits ahead of a barrage of bad news next week which will create a bad news is bad news scenario through the rest of preannouncement and warnings season.

To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/26/2001 11:30:32 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie our little CCMP trading toy looks broken -g- I'd like to see some more volume on this dump though, hopefully finish w/ at least 1 million on the day

To: Earlie who wrote (109907)	6/26/2001 12:38:42 PM
From: JHP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie from the fools <LOL> View UnThreaded • Threaded Prev • Next Author: EvilDoctorSmith Number: of 43247 Subject: Re: At this moment 284 idiots on this board! Date: 6/16/01 12:37 PM Post New • Post Reply • Reply Later • Create Poll • Post News Report this Post • Recommend it! Recommendations: 32 Drsmith these recs are very nice compenstion for the money you lost in RMBS .. Yep, I have lost a bunch of money on paper, a lot less in reality. As far as I can tell, the fundamentals of my company have not changed, and I am a very disciplined investor. My take on the first legal proceedings is that they were very much mishandled, perhaps by both the Rambus team and the judge (I'm pretty sure about the judge). So what has changed? Rambus lost in court. They appear to have a good shot on appeal, and they are doing well in Italy and expect to do better in Germany. They are beating the pants off DDR right now, Intel is still committed to RDRAM in a big way, Acer Labs is working on an RDRAM chipset, Samsung is making tons of money on RDRAM sales and ramping like mad, P4 is well on its way to becoming mainstream. There is a huge industry commitment to Rambus. SERDES is licensed to multiple companies, QRSL is on its way, and PC1200 is on the drawing boards. RDRAM is going to support 64 bit channels in the near future, not just 16. There is speculation that Rambus may have improved the design of DDR, which would give them some measure of control over that memory. RDRAM is currently in over 300 products, and the price recently broke the $60 per 128MB mark and is still headed lower, towards DDR prices. Recent estimates by people on this board say Rambus will make $1.40 per share next year (give or take), which is phenomenal growth in an economy that has turned down. 100% growth for the following year is entirely feasible. So, to summarize the above: Rambus has done everything they said they would do, except win their first legal case. This sent "investors" who did not understand the core business scurrying. Thus, we are now hovering just above $10 a share, when we should be looking at $50 or even $100 a share. The stock price, in my opinion, does not reflect the value of the company at this time. It is not even close. So I will hold on to my shares and wait for the phoenix to rise from the ashes. Well, this phoenix was never really dead, was it? Email this Post Format for Printing