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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:35:43 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

I don't know if you have noticed, but the 10-year T-bond yield has dropped from 5.5% to 5.15% the last few weeks. This together with the fall in the stock market has removed some of the overvaluation from the S&P 500. Now just 10-15% overvalued versus 25% a few weeks ago. This tells us nothing about near-term direction, but makes a strong bounce more likely when the worm turns IMHO.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:36:40 PM
From: James Calladine	Respond to of 30051

GOLDMAN SAYS.... <<<14:14 ET Goldman on Semi Equip : Goldman Sachs comments on trading in semi equipment names: says that today's rally was expected given flattening in orders, but would now recommend taking short-term trading profits ahead of a barrage of bad news next week which will create a bad news is bad news scenario through the rest of preannouncement and warnings season.>>> I am sure you are all going to dump your positions now. Goldman would not want you to suffer through the difficult time ahead.........<ggg> Namaste! Jim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:36:45 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

14:14 ET Goldman on Semi Equip : Goldman Sachs comments on trading in semi equipment names: says that today's rally was expected given flattening in orders, but would now recommend taking short-term trading profits ahead of a barrage of bad news next week which will create a bad news is bad news scenario through the rest of preannouncement and warnings season. briefing.com Ö¿Ö

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:38:37 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 30051

Zeev: I think/hope that everything closes close to unchangeed today. Funds are dumping what they were overweight in: Retail, drugs and financials picked to what they were underweighted in: tech. Not much change at end of day but the charts do look ragged. See you guys next week john

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:38:44 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 30051

Zeev: Another negative divergence is the VXN. When we compare the Nasdaq high of June 7th with that of the lower one today, we have a lower VXN today than on June 7th. In fact, we have made a new low for the VXN today on this move. This is a complacency rally in the Nasdaq pure and simple. The Fed. meeting is at work here in my mind.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:40:49 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 30051

Book-to-Bill Has a Ways to Go by Seth Martin 10:30:00 AM June 22, 2001 GMT We take a look at the latest book-to-bill figures from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. The verdict is that a rebound is still far away, and the equipment stocks could pressure the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) over the next several weeks. May’s preliminary book-to-bill was 0.46, slightly better than April’s revised 0.44 figure. However, Total shipments fell 8.5%, and bookings fell 2.6%. In fact, the only encouraging aspect of the figure is that shipments fell faster than did new bookings. It’s worthwhile to compare the last several months of figures with the tail end of the 1998 slowdown. <SNIP - see charts at link> Bookings in 1998 bottomed out at $481m, and b-to-b ration at 0.57, both of which happened in September. Within four months the b-to-b was back above 1.0, with a healthy level of new orders (39% above the July 1998 bookings), and it was off to the races for the semiconductor equipment industry. This time around, it appears bookings may have bottomed in May 2001, while b-to-b bottomed in April. We would look for bookings of $1400m-$1600m, 17%-34% above the March 2001 levels, to signal the arrival of an up cycle. At those levels, b-to-b should also be near 1.0 again. But the downturn has turned to be more severe than in 1998, and it will take more than four months for the 1.0 mark to be reached. The equipment makers in the SOX have an average P/E, based on fiscal 2002 earnings estimates, of 38.5, versus the overall SOX’s 38, and the 12 chipmakers in the SOX at 37.8. While this variance is not great, it does support our belief that the equipment stocks have gotten ahead of themselves as a group, and there is little chance of significant appreciation until early 2002. As far as the broad SOX is concerned, we believe it is now displaying an image that parallels the historic bubble that described in the tech sector: A dramatic, hyperbolic rise in the second half of 1999, a huge top pattern in the first two-thirds of 2000, and a plunge in the last third of 2000. Since December, 2000, the index has basically gone sideways—notwithstanding enormous volatility (the index soared or plunged 30% no less than nine times, plus several 10-20% swings in between). Recent trading has seen the index both fail to post a new high, surpassing the May peak on the June rally attempt, and recording a new low in June, below the May lows—if by only a small margin. On a short- to intermediate-term basis (3 weeks-to-3 months) this establishes a nominal downward bias, suggesting a further decline to support provided by the mini-bottom in April (SOX - 450-530; initial support 530 area.) Meanwhile, rallies will be suspect and are expected to stall in the low 600s. Best case would be another rally toward the April, May and June peaks at 700. ideaadvisor.com Ö¿Ö

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18612)	6/22/2001 2:55:48 PM
From: Kailash	Respond to of 30051

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