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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33015)	6/22/2001 3:31:50 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70281

Don't know if anyone caught the side note on two Fed rate research papers mentioned on CNBC. Maybe its on their site.. anyway, they targeted rates as much as a point lower by year's end going into next year. To me this spells weak economy, weak world economy.. one that won't support a quick rebound in demand for techs. There will be competitive advantages to some companies, even in a lousy purchasing environment... but selectivity won't change the tide. The 90's innovation/sales cycle we're all used to may extend further to the downside and be deeper. It looks like our weakness in the US is contagious.. analysts who have been counting on Europe to hold, or for Asia to continue to recover are probably wrong. The US will have to be the country which leads the rally.. when signs of that are on the horizon, then I'll be more optimistic generally. Sure there will be some nuggets of value and explosive growth here and there.. there always are. But look for retail to slow down and remember that the consumer is tapped out ... cc debt, % of cash flow devoted to debt service, reserves in savings and investments.. are all poor. Housing may sustain itself so long as rates are dropping and refinancing will free up capital.. the refunds will be helpful, but its not enough. I'm looking for retests on the April lows aftter the July 4th rally run which should begin mid next week.