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To: elmatador who wrote (11548)	6/23/2001 4:28:47 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Elmat, I believe it's good business sense to opt for multiple revenue streams for your pipe. In 1995-96 it was predicted that cable and PSTN would invade each other's turf - now we are seeing some real moves into this - really odd how long the "old order" was pretty much locking 2 local monopoly industries captive.. There's a funny "twist" in the incremental upgrade economics when you compare HFC with the PSTN.. Initially cable has/had the upper hand. Why ? It's easier to provide voice services and broadband internet over the cable network than over the PSTN. Why ? Because HFC is not so much a step up for many MSOs as xDSL was for the ILECs & PTTs. The "defensive" tactic the ILECs could counter with was not really a "full scale" attack at cable's bread & butter biz: video service. Why ? Because DSL in its low grade speeds cannot really compete with the bandwidth of HFC - it's pretty unsuitable for delivering video. So to compete in the transfer of SDTV or just analog TV in a competitive offering the ILECs have to be able to provide at least VDSL over their PSTN. This is the reason why I see the so far completed xDSL upgrades not as an "aggressive" open of the ILECs - but as a rather defensive move on their part.. At the VDSL stage it will become an all-out attack of the ILECs. If you look at bandwidth and architecture (shared, non-shared) alone, VDSL might blow away HFC on data access, the MSOs might counter by providing a bigger "data" only ratio of their HFC basic banwidth. The "odd" aspect of the VDSL upgrade appears to me that it should be easiest to upgrade (at lowest costs) in areas where brand new NGDLCs were deployed. The areas were ADSL (and RADSL) were deployed that didn't need a NGDLC to obtain those classes of service are way more expensive to move to VDSL. MEans that those who got/will get ADSL last should be the first to obtain VDSL. Funny somehow.. Finally it shouldn't be too difficult to move from VDSL to FTTH, maybe it will skipped over finally. When reading my own text above I get the impression that cable upgrade costs were higher initially but ILEC upgrade costs will be higher progressively in the future, especially in the VDSL upgrade rush (if it ever started) However I predict that the ultimate future will not lie in bundled offerings as the FT article suggests but the contrary: I firmly believe that finally (after a long battle) when broadband becomes ubiquitous there will be a firm separation of infrastructure and content. Let's see how the future will shape up.. rgrds CROSSY

To: elmatador who wrote (11548)	6/24/2001 3:45:11 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Crossy, elmatador. a slightly different model is being followed by Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE). As far as I can tell, they are just buying everything, except a cable company, (and I might have missed that). Take a look at their Aliant subsidiary. It might be the most technologicly advanced phone company in Canada. It certainly is making money! It's also BCE's weapons test ground for what it's going roll out against cablecos: aliant.ca Aliant Telecom's capital plan for 2001 has been refocused to service high- speed needs in the major urban areas [See 'Investing Activities in bce.ca ] BCE itself is now in the TV network, newspaper, internet businesses, not to mention all the usual things big phone companies do. How they are going to put it all together in one piece is beyond my vision. It's as if ATT bought the NY Times and NBC. We Canadians are craven when it comes to big companies - it puts a whole new lot of zing into the 'Ma' in Ma Bell - doesn't matter what it is , it all comes from the same teat..... bce.ca Take a look at the Quicklist on the left. FrankW

To: elmatador who wrote (11548)	6/25/2001 10:01:58 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

"Now more than ever, telcos are finding it imperative to cross over into the broadcasting business, as they are under assault from cable companies and in desperate need of a strong new revenue stream." elmatador and thread- IMO, the real problem is not television. It's the ILECs fear of losing business revenues. Cable TV is a consumer business generating some $40 to $50 per month for each subscriber. Whereas ILEC business revenues are in the thousands of dollars per month. If the cablecos start extending the cable plant to business, then ILECs are in trouble. ILECs are not, "in desperate need of a strong new revenue stream." They only need to protect their business revenue stream. That is what is causing them fear from the cablecos. -MikeM(From Florida)