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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (2334)	6/24/2001 9:32:52 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 206184

What a contrast between the article, forecasted activity for quite some time and the stock prices. People are still chasing tech stocks that may not even exist in 6 months or past hero's & future dogs like CSCO.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (2334)	6/24/2001 9:46:54 PM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Guys, We have been hearing about the lack of rigs, but the article you posted seems to indicate that this is not a bottleneck. The difficulty I have with these articles, it that they do not specify what kind of rig is in question. Surely it must take a lot longer to fabricate deep-water rigs than land-rigs. How long does it take to fabricate a rig? Here is piece from Don Coxe, if it has not been posted before. nationalpost.com best, Seppo

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (2334)	6/24/2001 10:46:13 PM
From: CpsOmis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

I have to concur w/ Jim_P's conclusions. I just got my wings clipped a bit trying to time the market in NBR. Yes, it looks like the funds are doing an end of quarter dump. However, something Dabum said in a recent post hit me hard...something to the effect of "Perhaps this is not an intermediate selloff, but the start and continuation of the end of cycle downtrend". Take a look at the 10 year chart for NBR/OSX and you see the rocket like apogee/perigee up/down or whatever in 97 to extreme heights compared to the price history of the stock. Then, look at the same sloped inverted V for the recent cycle. My comments are the following: 1) The '97 'bubble' was huge compared to the history of the stock price. The '99 and on bubble currently is just as sharp a slope, but much higher. (and now on the reverse downward trend) 2) The momentum and direction is as sharp a downslope as in '97, and quite well advanced. 3) We have seen rampant speculation in the markets unheard of in the history of stock markets in the last ten years. 4) On-line trading has put a significant new twist to the mix. 5) Conclusions: If you are old enough to remember..."It's not NICE to fool with Mother Nature!"...then you remember a few wicked bear markets. The information age on-line trading has fueled speculation to the extend never seen before. I would be extraordinarily cautious trying to gain more upside in this market. I truly expect a post quarter short covering rally, but it doesn't seem prudent taking 10% 3 day drops to gain a 5% pop. We are no where in the "it just keeps looking better and better" part of the cycle, but the "it looks great but can only get worse" part. Earnings will look great for a lot of these companies, but the 'when' not 'if' of the end of this cycle is on everyone's minds. I broke a personal 'trading rule' trying to catch NBR on a rebound. I try to trade on an upward trend for under valued stocks on a dip, or sell short in the opposite scenario. That way, if I mistime it, I ultimately can wait for price to meet value. So, I grabbed myself, asked myself "what ARE you doing here!", and sold my NBR....and of course, I sold right at the bottom on Friday! To make matters worse, on Friday, NBR shows a "Firefly Doji" pattern, which can be interpreted as a potential trading bottom IF further bullish confirmation is found. A rally is certainly imminent,but I agree with those warning that the risk/reward in the OSX is not favorable, suggesting the best risk/reward now is in shorting overleveraged E&P's....... My prediction is the OSX will continue to wander around on its way down. And due to the rampant increases in speculation we have seen in the '90s, the downside very well could hit at any time as sharp and hard as '97. We may be in that trend right now. Cosmo