To: LTK007 who wrote (44450 ) 6/25/2001 4:56:26 AM From: LTK007 Respond to of 56535 Wallberg at breifing.com presents an argument i agree with:)---that if Fed does not cut rates this week(though they strongly think they will) it would be good thing and NOT a bad thing--read on--<<A Case of Less is More [BRIEFING.COM - Robert Walberg] It's Fed time again. On Wednesday, at the conclusion of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Greenspan & Co. will give investors a brief respite from the drudgery known as warnings season. They will, in the opinion of virtually everyone, cut the funds rate for the 6th time since the year began. But while the rest of the street debates whether the Fed should cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points, Briefing.com will argue that the best move the Fed can make, at least from the market's perspective, is to make no move at all. Though we put the probability of the Fed doing nothing at just slightly more than zero, the reason we think the market would ultimately respond most favorably to a lack of action stems from our belief that the majority of investors are no longer looking for the Fed to rescue them. The market knows that most of the Fed's work is already done. Since January, Uncle Alan and friends have brought the funds rate down by 250 basis points. As a result, real rates are under 2%, and the yield curve is very near normal. Meanwhile, long-term rates have begun to edge higher as bond traders grow fearful that the moves to date will rekindle inflation. In other words, Greenspan has little wiggle room left. Could the Fed cut rates by another 50-75 basis points? Sure. But in Briefing.com's opinion what investors want to see more than anything, even another rate cut or two, is a strong signal that the economy has turned the corner. Cutting the funds rate by another 50 basis points, as many now predict the Fed will do on Wednesday, would send the market just the opposite signal. Though we could see the indices spike higher in a knee-jerk reaction that lower rates are always good news, we contend that it won't take long for traders to conclude that the Fed's worries should be their worries. You can almost see the little cartoon thought-cloud popping over their heads, "if the Fed sees fit to cut rates by 50 basis points for the sixth time in as many moves, conditions must still stink. And if Greenspan thinks the economy is so fragile that the Fed must take this unprecedented step, then there's no way in heck that corporate profits are going to rebound by Q4. I better sell, sell, SELL!" ---end quote