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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (2355)	6/25/2001 11:37:41 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

Hi Cardog! >> I'm pretty sure we are all aware that consumer debt is considered high. Yet declining interest rates should be beneficial, no? << No! lower rates aren't getting down to the consumer level for the most part. Mortgage rates haven't come down enough to make refinancing beneficial. Credit card rates are still high. I was just reading Agora-Inc. this morning where they state a startling new study done by MGIC Capital Markets Group, says American homeowners are in the process of rewriting the traditional rules of refinancing: rather than getting a new mortgage at a lower interest rate, they are taking out larger loans at rates slightly higher than what they were paying before. Mortgage market researchers report that the average borrowers in the current refinance boom took out loans $41,000 larger and at an interest rate 0.6 of a percentage point higher than they had prior to the refinance. Why would people do that? Because they have credit card debt and other debts at even higher rates! And it's getting harder and harder to pay them. How is the consumer going to bail the economy out under these circumstances? Sooner or later something has to give, I would think. Cardog, I could be wrong, maybe Greenspan and the consumer can bail us out. Meanwhile, I won't mind picking up a trade here and there in the patch.

To: excardog who wrote (2355)	6/25/2001 11:46:33 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

Scott, Since I don't operate, I don't have control over the amount of NG produced from each well. I will say that it is dangerous to over produce a NG well, and in some cases and if it done the operator could be held liable if the well is lost. I don't believe any of that is going on in the patch. You always want to produce a well at a rate which recovers the maximum amount of reserves over the life of a well and their are several theories on what is the best way to accomplish that. As far as which NG stocks to short, most have already had a sizable move down. In NG stocks, I was short XTO, POG, BR, EOG, APC, MHR, COG and KWK. I still like KWK, APC, PENG, BR and COG as good shorts today. In oil service, I was short UCO, CLB, SII, WFT, PHEL, CAM and HAL. I still think UCO, SLB, BHI, WFT, CAM and HAL are good shorts today. As far as time frame, I would continue to hold the shorts until we see a change in the fundamentals in oil and NG builds. I think there is a long way to go on the down side. Longer term, I'm very bullish and hope to play the next up cycle. I do believe we will see shorter cycles as the world energy markers get tighter, but we will still have cycles. Good luck, Jim