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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (140)	6/25/2001 9:16:50 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

What to expect now. June 25, 2001. Ord Oracle. The S&P is consolidating the recent rally off the June 15 low. The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 5.67 and is near bullish territory. The "Percent Volume" came in today at .46, which is neutral. On June 21 the S&P did break above the previous short term highs on increased volume and implies the June 21 high of 1249 will be tested before any worthwhile decline will begin. If the June 21 high is tested on at least a 10% reduction of volume than a bearish signal will be generated. If the test is on near equal volume or greater, than the rally should continue. Judging by the bearish VIX readings near sell areas (hitting a low today at 22.26), we expect the test of the 1250 area to have a bearish outcome. No new trades yet. The NDX is in a similar situation as the S&P; a short-term bounce should materialize. The NDX appear to be drawing a stronger short-term picture than the S&P. The NDX has not pulled back off the recent highs as much and the recent pull back is on much lighter volume. It appears the NDX is in a "B" wave of an ABC rally phase. If "C" wave equals the "A" wave than NDX should approach 1830 area for the short term. This is all in the confinements of a downtrend. Mr. Greenspan makes his announcement public on Wednesday. The Market may bounce into the announcement window and decline after. The VIX on the Nasdaq hit a low today at 51.05 and is at levels seen near tops. Therefore once this short-term bounce is completed, another decline is expected. Today at our 3:30 update, we went long the QQQ at 43.25. If the "C" wave of this potential ABC rally phase is equal to the "A" wave than the next high point should come near the 46 level on the QQQ. Our stop on this position is 41.80. Long QQQ at 43.25, stop at 41.80. Upside target near 46 or better. On previous commentary, we said, "A bull market has begun on the monthly charts in Gold that has an upside target (according to Advance GET) of near 330. For short term a consolidation pattern is going on and may last into late June. There is a good possibility that gold stocks (Homestake, ASA, Newmont Mining etc) may find support during the late June cycle low and start the next big rally from there. It is worth remembering that a lot of gold stock we watch broke above their previous highs on increased volume. This is the type of action that appears in bull markets." Late June is upon us and a lot of the Gold stocks were firm today. We are holding long the XAU. marketweb.com QQQ between .5 and .764 retracements geocities.com