Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (10112)	6/25/2001 3:31:16 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

PRESS RELEASE 6/22/01: The Futures Fax "Keeper of the 1929 top comparison" has gone from "off crash risk" to "Early Warning Crash Risk ." The recent market top was May 21, 2001. We are now 31 calendar days since the day of the high. The current market pattern is following the "pattern" of the 1929 top that led to a market crash between 50 and 60 calendar days after the top in 1929. The "Early Warning" is in response to a market top pattern that is following the general pattern of the 1929 top. "Early warning" can be issued 1 to 35 calendar days after the top. "Yellow Alert - On Watch Crash Risk" can be issued 35 to 50 calendar days after the top. "Red Alert - Imminent Crash Risk" can be issued 45 to 65 calendar days after the top. For more information, see Saturday's "Futures Fax stock index commentary" at www.futuresfax.com The EARLY WARNING CRASH WATCH is based on the pattern of the 1929 top which usually does NOT follow through. The pattern is usually broken near the "40 day corner." Let's cover the short S&P trade and monitor the market over the next few days. If we get the rally next week and if it starts to fail the week after I'll consider putting on new short positions. But, let's stand aside on watch how things unfold. commitmentsoftraders.com

To: Paul Shread who wrote (10112)	6/25/2001 3:36:30 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Thank you for taking the time to fill me in.... With all due respect, however, would have to say I find it "spacey". BTW, reading and having high regard for your input this thread for some time now, had not realized you were a regular market commentator...(guess I should begin checking Profiles......)

To: Paul Shread who wrote (10112)	6/25/2001 3:59:18 PM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The O'Neill quote was obviously intended to mirror Coolidge's December 1928 address to Congress: "No Congress of the U.S. ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquillity and contentment ... and the highest record of years of prosperity." Perfect. Very amusing.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (10112)	6/25/2001 4:07:29 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Monday June 25, 3:45 pm Eastern Time Cleveland Fed article backs interest rate restraint WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - Central bankers must tread softly when making monetary policy so as not to disturb natural economic patterns with decisions based on murky information about the economy, a regional Federal Reserve bank said. In an article in its annual report released earlier this month, the Cleveland Fed argued that current measurements are ``simply inadequate to the task'' of accurately assessing the health of the economy, a problem that poses a risk for setting monetary policy. It also advocated letting economic cycles run their course. ``It's not just that gaps between potential and actual output -- to the extent they exist -- are difficult to perceive,'' the regional Fed said in the report. ``Given our current inability to measure economic activity, they may be impossible to perceive.'' The Cleveland Fed noted that the economy's shift to a more high-tech and services-based environment and away from a reliance on manufacturing and agriculture makes gauging the economy that much more difficult. ``Until these systems reflect the accumulated lessons of economic theory and evidence, monetary policy will struggle to deliver the successful outcomes that characterized the last two decades,'' the regional Fed said. The article also advocated a somewhat hands-off approach to monetary policy, even when the economy softens, as it has this year. ``Just as episodes of relatively rapid growth may be part of the natural ebb and flow of economic activity, so, too, are episodes of slower growth -- and aggressive counter-cyclical monetary policy poses significant risk,'' the Cleveland Fed said. biz.yahoo.com