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To: Arthur Tang who wrote (1404)6/25/2001 8:37:35 PM
From: TechTrader42  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1471
 
Here's an interesting passage from Lee Gruenfeld's "The Street":

"When I was growing up in Brooklyn, there was this guy with nothing but a phone number who'd pick horses for you for five bucks. What he did, he gave all his customers different horses, so he had the whole field covered. One out of every nine of his customers thought he was a genius when they won, and would keep paying him five bucks even when he kept losing for them. But every time he picked a winner, they were more convinced he was a genius and they kept on paying. And obviously a few of them won a lot, and they thought he was psychic. But it was all complete ....., just the natural consequence of simple statistics."

And:

"Nobody knows anything, and the name of the game is getting people to believe you know it all. Just ask yourself this ...: Why on Earth would anybody who can predict the market ever tell anybody else? If any one of those fraudulent ..... really knew what he was talking about, the last ...... thing in the world he'd be doing is telling us about it."