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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (1364)	6/25/2001 10:08:04 PM
From: keithcray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Briefing advises investors to sell into any Fed Cut Rally Updated: 26-Jun-01 General Commentary Remember the Gatorade ad campaign, "I want to be like Mike (Michael Jordan)." Well, apparently Mike Capellas, Compaq's (CPQ 13.90 +0.40) CEO, has decided that he wants to be like Lou (Gerstner)... Or at least he wants his company to be more like IBM... In a stunning announcement, CPQ has decided to throw in the towel on the hardware business and emphasize software and services... On its surface the move makes sense in that the PC business has slowed down, pricing is very competitive and software and services are higher margin businesses... But before we applaud Capellas for his "vision," let's remember that the company has basically floundered under his management... And now he wants to steer the world's number one PC maker in a completely different, unproven direction, and we're supposed to jump aboard... No thanks. New course makes CPQ a major question mark for the foreseeable future and a stock we would avoid... On the flip side, news that CPQ will de-emphasize its PC business is good news for chief rival Dell (DELL 24.25 +0.84)... Company's reputation and low-cost business model leave it well positioned to steal the majority of CPQ's market share. Aside from the CPQ news, Monday was relatively quiet... Nasdaq fought through weakness in the blue chip indices to post a modest gain... Net stocks were among the best performers, as traders began speculating that the dot-com advertising market has bottomed... Gainers included Yahoo! (YHOO 19.77 +2.46), DoubleClick (DCLK 13.61 +1.52), eBay (EBAY 71.04 +3.25) and Amazon (AMZN 12.81 +0.41)... Generally, however, traders were reluctant to take big positions ahead of Wednesday's decision by the Fed. Most pundits expect Greenspan & Co. to announce a rate cut of 50 basis points, though few would be surprised by news of a 25 bp cut... Though economic conditions seem to warrant additional easings, Briefing.com not sure that market will get much bang from lower rates... As we noted in yesterday's Stock Brief entitled, "A Case of Less is More," traders would rather see signs of an economic/earnings turnaround than one or two more rate cuts. Having already slashed rates by 250 basis points since the year began, Fed's job is mostly done... The key to sustaining upward momentum in the market now shifts to corporate earnings... In order for buyers to gain/maintain conviction, they need to know that profits have bottomed... News of a 50 basis point rate cut would offer no such hope... Consequently, if Fed lives up to current expectations and lowers the funds rate by 50 basis points, Briefing.com would sell into any initial gains. Robert Walberg

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (1364)	6/25/2001 10:55:35 PM
From: keithcray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Check out some of Waxie's price projections: Tuesday, June 26, 2001 Tuesday, June 26, 2001 Posted Monday, June 25, 2001, at: 18:06 PM by waxie And, after hours AMCC warned as WAXIE said they would. Amazing how people are still so stupid as to think that we are going to have this miraculous technology rebound in the 2nd half of the year! Unreal. AMCC we've said all along is a $5 - $7 stock in the end, and its steadily moving closer and closer to that target. They are now slated to have $40 - $45 MIL in revenues which projects them out on a yearly basis to be trading at well over 20 X's revenue. Ah, sorry, homey doesn't play that! And, the kicker is, business is getting WORSE, not better. For all those that feel that techs will get a miracle comeback, sorry,it ain't gonna happen, not in this lifetime. The days of tech bubbles are over for the near term. Water ALWAYS seeks its own level. watch for BRCM, PMCS and others in the same sector as AMCC to be under constant pressure from here on in. We've said it for a long time, if you are investing in tech the only way to make money is to be SHORT them, not long them longer term. Short term here now we have the FOMC on Wednesday and so we may get a nice bounce today or tomorrow. 50 basis should trigger a relief rally and with earnings upcoming we may very well get one final rally on the Nasdaq once we're through warnings season. HOWEVER, overall we remain in the BEARISH camp longer term. AS traders we could care less how the market does long term, but many of you play longer term and if so here are several longer term shorts for your pleasure (short term we trade them with the market long and short,these are for LONG TERM players only) VRTS - should be a $20s stock longer term JNPR - under $10 by year end CIEN - under $15 by year end BRCM under $10 by year end PMCS - ditto BIOTECH DEATH, BBH cut in at least 30% off from here easy (PDLI,HGSI, IDPH, etc) SOX = death period You've asked for a Grinch list this year. Timing is everything. Watch these for when the market breaks down,or months out of the money puts if you wish to play. Keep in mind that we still believe a near term rally is probable with earnings and FOMC. Once this FOMC and earnings are out of the way, however, we could see a total breakdown of the market indexes that could spell doom to all investors. Meantime, trade the way the market goes, don't buck it. If we rally, play it the long way. We are NOT bears, nor bulls, we are TRADERS! Don't get caught thinking we won't get rallies and bounces like we just had into last earnings. We will and always do. We'll see what we shall see. So far we've been right the whole way. DOW under 9000 by year end is still very possible, as is Nasdaq 1200s. Hope I'm wrong, but ya know I won't be. See ya on the other side, TRADE 'Em here! Investors in big time trouble! WAXIE