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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (79215)	6/25/2001 10:12:20 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Actually, like you I have a rally starting just before the 4th of July, and yes, my current stance is still 1850 before July 4th, mind you, my "unbelievable" target of 2050 before June expiry, was on the nose and just a day before expiry, yet, we all make mistakes, and have different approaches to the market. My problem is that you bring up technical anecdotes (like P/C ratio) to support your opinion, when it suit your "gut feeling model" when it does not FA and TA do not count, they are "priced" into the market. Than what does count? Capitulation of Fidelity and Janus? First we really have no proof of that, second, there are more than 5000 other funds, what are they doing ? Is not their capitulation as important as that of Janus and Fidelity, are they capitulating? If they were, the tic would have gone to -1000 and worse for a stretch at a time as they did late in May of last year. You see, we are trying to learn from each other, but your calls are "gut calls" every time there is another "rationale", it is very difficult to understand, less than that argue the opposite side of a gut argument. My guts are blue, yours are red. As for digging old posts, if I was going to make the case that you were wrong in calling for 2500 before any major downturn just as the market was peaking, first on May 22, and then on June 8, I had to go and dig out what I remembered succinctly you were espousing, without a shred of doubt, of course, in the absolute correctness of your gut feeling. Personally, I think that a 15% swing in the wrong direction is quite substantial, don't you? Zeev