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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4156)	6/26/2001 5:25:49 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I don't think a "war" at any level intensity above what has been happening in the last few months is likely in the near term. None of the other Arab states bar Iraq or wherever want to get involved and Israel just wants to contain the Palestinians not squash them if the latter could anyhow be possible.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4156)	6/26/2001 9:27:31 AM
From: Diana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

an overall realization that the Fed is going to have to lower more to spur the US out of its profits recession The real turning point will be the concern that the Fed cannot lower enough to spur the US out of its profits recession. . . that Greenspan cannot control this slowdown/recession. That would be a major mind-shift and would cause real angst.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4156)	6/26/2001 12:11:32 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hawk, thanks for the comments, and the USD could certainly move higher with one more leg, as we know the people trying to do big positioning shorts in the USD the past few years have had a tough time. The USD is a bit like the NASD back in 1999, many think it's high, but that does not mean that the trend is not your friend. I've been hearing more war talk than normal recently. It may be that we have more of a significant terrorist type event occur in the next month. I would really hope it's not a nuclear accident/problem in nature. I think there is a whole lot of validity in your scenarios It could also unleash a massive flight of capital to both the Dollar and Gold. The dollar should surge because the expectant upsurge in the price of oil and the need for dollars to pay for it. I also think that the fact that the US is running a budget surplus (or at least was.. :0) is far more favorable than the deficit spending we're seeing in competing economies. You are certainly correct that there has been a positive correlation between the USD and the price of crude, and higher crude prices could well move the dollar higher. and the US Budget situation, at least on a trailing basis, is the best, or among them, of the big economies. John