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To: JRI who wrote (5782)6/25/2001 10:07:10 PM
From: Shack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Ameritrader:

6/22/01,61.68%
6/25/01,47.97%


Decidedly undecided. I see a rally under any scenario tomorrow. My map has tomorrow finishing off a 4 of 'c' of B which would precede the 5 down, or heading into a 3 of 'C'.

I would bias myself long tomorrow at this juncture. Of course I hate predictions-g



To: JRI who wrote (5782)6/26/2001 6:06:15 AM
From: skinowski  Respond to of 209892
 
Those are all good points.

Adding to the confusion is the report of record short interest. Question is, why now? Why not last September? Are they “smart money” shorts, or just people jumping aboard late in the trend? I don’t know, but suspect that this phenomenon, taking place in an advanced stage of a Bear market, is likely to be bullish.

Wave–wise, it should be remembered that the retracements ARE still corrective both in structure and extent. To rephrase something I wrote a few days ago, if things develop on schedule, it should, perhaps, make you suspicious, but it doesn’t prove you wrong <g>. Having a day job and staying a bit further from the action helps me, I think, to remain patient.

I suspect that the current technical/ sentiment confusion might be the modern “broadband equivalent” of the severe bearishness you would expect to see deep in a wave 2 retracement. (I notice, that all my arguments end up landing with the bullish side up; hope it doesn’t end up costing me money <g>)

BTW, re: potential wave ( C) breakout conformation. The chart is several days old, but still valid.

clearstation.com

As an aside, this guy Ernie keeps digging up curious charts. Check the Nikkei. Doesn’t it look like its in a wave 5? If that is the case, upon achieving a new low, it should be ready for a fully “investradable” (at least 3 wave) rally!

clearstation.com

Good luck.
Ski