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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (79216)	6/25/2001 10:19:19 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Newvision, no slam on you but you have been unrelentingly bullish (yu were correctly so off the april bottom) for several months now while tech has gone sideways to down. Techs are in a bear market, as indicated by the the nasdaq being below it's 200 dma and the increasing # of tech companies gapping down on downward earnings revisions. This is the reverse of the bull market, where all the bears came out at reaction to the trend and got vocal, now at reactions to the bearish trend the bulls come out a get vocal, you had ibexx calling people with cautious attitudes jeering pessimists and doplicity insulting me telling me i was gonna go broke and i was a punk. The nasdaq got very oversold internally several sessions ago with the mcoscillator hitting -200 stockcharts.com since then we have had several days of anemic rallies with no great plurality of bullish buying sentiment in a/d or advancing/declining volume, nor have we seen any sentiment washout, one of the indicators i used for the reversal on april 5th was the 95% upside volume on nasdaq. i think the rally from the bottom a few days ago is a technical rebound of an oversold condition and we will get a sell the news on the fed rate drop. no doubt there are some great opportunities developing in these oversold sectors, but i'm not sure the time is ripe, yet. i will be back off vacation next weekend and posting more regularly, with a twist, twisted person that i'yam -g- b

To: t2 who wrote (79216)	6/25/2001 11:36:36 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

NV, You optimists you. <g> Take note that many stocks have started their lateral movement or base building period higher then the April low while others, such as NTAP, are making what appears to be W bottoms. I take what's happening now as a market coming terms with the extension of the recovery into next year. All of which is working together to prevent testing of the April low. Of course all the above will change if during earning season the tone is moved to back to no visibility or it's getting worse and companies report that they have no idea when it will get better, which Zeev appears to be looking for. Further more I would like nothing more then the FED to mention that they are seeing signs of recovery with one more .25 reduction and a move to neutral. In reality though, as I have mentions before with my put up or shut comment, it's come down to earnings now. Reducing rates is not going to hold the market together anymore. The real risk I see in the market is not this summer of boredom of selling into rallies and buying bottoms that are short lived, but a fall into winter of discontent. B