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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amots who wrote (79245)	6/26/2001 7:18:33 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Amots, I basically have my hierarchy for what bounces first as the mutual funds play their month end games. It is speculation but I feel it is a rational approach. I am NOT refering to the semiconductor or the large cap software stocks. Not referring to the sectors that have held up well.(I have most of my holdings in stocks that did not get beaten up like the group below this past quarter...I am just trying to catch the trading bounce in the types that should last longer than just one week, imho) Just looking at the beaten up names that could be victims of mass selling by mutual funds..given the degree of the declines in these stocks....for trading opportunities into July. My observation is that the first ones to bounce appear to be storage...as there seems to be buyers interested in picking up names like NTAP that have hit yearly lows. Looks like buyers are returning to this group. The next sectors appears to be small networkers that sell into to the enterprise market and the suppliers to wireless sectors. Now the last sector is the optical/communication market. Apart from AMCC (probably lots of short covering), I did not see any strength. GLW was down big even after rallying big late last week. I guess they are still dumping positions into any strength. My guess is that we will see a turn in these stocks soon as well and seem the most disliked by new buyers..so it seems. Still plan to play this group for a bounce as well but it is not my favorite. GLW might be an exception, given that they also have other business lines and are profitable..with a PE of about 20 for this year. This one should make a good move, imho, into mid July. I have already bought it along with Global Crossing (GX). So far, I have added primarily storage and the small networkers that sell into enterprise market. Still looking to add the wireless names...RFMD or AHAA that you noted. Will probably do that tomorrow. Also considering Nokia and MOT. Looking to try JDSU, NT, LU types late in the week..if they keep drifting lower. If they rebound as well, then I am just going to ignore this group for my basket of stocks that I plan to hold into July..better opportunities elsewhere..to try and take advantage of Window dressing by funds. That is my plan more or less. Not sticking to it strictly...just depends upon what the market offers in terms of opportunities. Again, this is only for what I consider bounce candidates into July, not necessarily long term holdings although I do plan to consider them for that as well. Again, my primary reason for trying this type of approach to trading is due to the extreme moves we have seen in tech stocks lately and that the sector appears to be on the rebound (at least to me). This type of strategy is nothing new but I feel that we are in an exceptional period, just like early April. I doubt it lasts into next quarter end. The reason it should work now is due to the extreme declines in so many tech stocks....a chance for some funds to finally unload stocks that will make many of them look bad when investors see the semi-annual reports. By next quarter it may become too predictable, just like the dogs of the Dow approach. JMHO.