To: j g cordes who wrote (33084 ) 6/26/2001 8:08:45 PM From: Johnny Canuck Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70357 This would be very ugly. The after shocks would ripple on for a long time. As pointed out in the article though, it may signal the beginning of the true bottom. ********************** Industry Nervously Watching 360Networks Steve Maich The Financial Post Tuesday, June 26 Few telecommunications companies will escape unscathed if 360networks Inc. [T.TSX] defaults on its loans next month, analysts say. The company is facing receivership if it does not pay its creditors within 20 days. A long list of companies, from suppliers and partners to competitors, are bracing for what may be the first of many bankruptcies in the industry. Should 360networks fail, it could send a flood of network equipment into the market at rock-bottom prices, starting a domino effect of reduced demand and prices, leaving only the very strongest in the industry standing, analysts said. Should 360networks fail, it could send a flood of network equipment into the market at rock-bottom prices. "The demise of a global carrier such as 360 would send shockwaves through the optical networking industry, exacerbating the slowdown in demand for optical gear," analyst David Jackson at Morgan Stanley warned clients in a research note yesterday. Vancouver-based 360networks missed a US$10.9-million debt payment on June 15. Greg Maffei, a former Microsoft Corp. [MSFT] chief financial officer, is reviewing the company's options as he tries to raise the US$300-million 360networks needs to stay afloat. The company's options are "increasingly limited," Mr. Jackson said as he discussed the likely impact on the industry should the company go bankrupt. The fallout would immediately hit equipment suppliers such as Nortel Networks Corp. [T.NT], Alcatel SA [ALA], and Sycamore Networks Inc. [SCMR], which have billions in outstanding contracts with 360networks, he said. "In the relatively short term we expect some very big names in telecom to disappear." The same goes for network partners such as Global Crossing Ltd. [GX], and Williams Communications Group Inc [WCG]. Both companies signed "fibre swap" deals with 360networks to carry each other's traffic at little cost. If 360networks fails, it would leave those networks with a glut of unused capacity, driving down prices in an already-depressed market. Down the road, if someone buys 360network's assets at a deep discount, it could increase competition for the few available network service contracts, forcing prices even lower, and putting pressure on competitors like Level3 Communications Inc. [LVLT], Qwest Corp. [Q], and BCE Inc.'s [T.BCE] Teleglobe unit, said Ian Angus, president of Angus Telemanagement Group Inc. "It's going to be very rough on competing networks," Mr. Angus said. "In the relatively short term we expect some very big names in telecom to disappear." The bright side is that 360network's failure would put an end to the company's aggressive expansion plans in an already over-supplied network environment, Mr. Jackson said. That could set the stage for a healthier outlook for the telecom industry, he said.