To: Sharck who wrote (29603 ) 6/27/2001 8:33:12 AM From: puborectalis Respond to of 37746 Common Sense Where to Put Some Courageous Cash By James B. Stewart June 26, 2001 The Despised WITH SUMMER UPON us and the market in the doldrums, it's tempting to head for the beach and forget stocks, the economy and Greenspan, let alone those tech stocks sitting like thorns in your portfolio. But with the Nasdaq teetering just above and below 2000, you should be prepared for another buying opportunity. Readers of this column will recall that I urged you to raise some cash back in April, when the market surged through my selling target of 2075 to nearly 2200. That proved to be a good call, for the market barely rose from there before succumbing to a slew of warnings on corporate earnings and renewed anxieties about the health of the economy. The Nasdaq's recent peak was just over 2250, which means my new buying target is 10% below that, or 2025, a level the market has hit several times during the past week. That means it's time to put some of the cash I recently raised back to work in the market. Where to turn? There's no shortage of bargains among stocks I've recommended over the past few months, but my recent experience with Internet stocks has been instructive. After years of being a pessimist about Internet stock valuations, I recommended AOL Time Warner (AOL) on March 31 and several profitable Internet companies — Yahoo! (YHOO), eBay (EBAY), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline.com (PCLN) — on May 8. Since then, all of these stocks have rallied, so much so that I can't really recommend them as bargains. But the characteristics they had when I did recommend them are now shared by some other stocks. First, they're in a business — the Internet — that was hated by investors still hung over from last year's euphoria. Second, most actually had earnings, not just hopes and expectations. Third, the Internet sector had stabilized after hitting a bottom in January of this year. Where does this lead me now? Straight to technology and telecommunications. I try to be accountable in this column, and since I've mentioned some recent successes, let me acknowledge that I have been flat wrong at predicting a turnaround in telecommunication stocks. I reiterated my faith in Nortel Networks (NT) two weeks ago — just before it announced a huge write-off and gave a devastating earnings forecast. Already at depressed levels, the stock lost another 40% and has been trading in the single digits, almost as low as the justly reviled Lucent Technologies (LU). That hurts. As recently as May 22 I recommended Qwest Communications (Q), Verizon Communications (VZ) and SBC Communications (SBC), arguing, prematurely, that "it should be telecom's turn" to rally. Like many people, I have been amazed by the near-total collapse of the telecommunications sector. Yet a number of these stocks share qualities that did eventually lead to an upturn in the Internet sector. Their industry is now despised. Qwest, Verizon and SBC do have solid earnings. The only criterion still lacking is price stability or a slight upturn in stocks in the sector, but that could come anytime. When it does, I intend to add to some of these positions. I expect the upturn to come first to the service providers, like Qwest (a stock I own and would add to) and later to the equipment companies, like Nortel. I'm feeling increasingly isolated here, but I have not yet given up on Nortel. Along with such premier telecom-equipment names as Ciena (CIEN), JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Corning (GLW), I expect it to emerge from the wreckage stronger than ever. Unlike telecommunications stocks, many technology stocks do seem to have hit bottom and stabilized, or turned upward. I've recently recommended IBM (IBM) in this area, which I'd like to add to my portfolio. And a research report from Merrill Lynch caught my eye this week with a recommendation of technology stocks the firm dubs "upstarts." These are companies with cutting-edge technology that threaten the status quo with better performance at lower cost — and thus, in Merrill Lynch's estimation, are likely to surge when capital spending recovers. I'm not familiar with many of these companies, but some of them fit my criteria for stocks to buy now. Among those I do know and have recommended previously (and already own myself) are Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC), Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD), Ciena and Novellus Systems (NVLS). Others on the list I'd consider are Extreme Networks (EXTR) and Gemstar-TV Guide (GMST). Merrill cautions that all of these stocks are for highly risk-tolerant investors, something that should be obvious to anyone who's lived through the volatility of the past year. Common Sense Archive