Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (52710)	6/27/2001 9:14:30 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . .On Interest Rates. . . With CPI increasing as it has, another 50 basis point cut would be extreme, IMO. However, I felt that 50 basis points were too extreme last month. What we don't need is to over-correct again. So if the FED is really trying to cool things down and keep us in a dis-inflationary period, they will ease up on the cuts somewhat this time around. I give it a 55% chance of a 25 basis point cut [or mixed 1/4 point and no change]. . . 30% chance of NO RATE CUTS and just a 15% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Now how the media spins all this is anyone's guess. This decision SHOULD not move the markets decidedly one way or another. But all it takes is the hyping of a particular spin and the markets can be moved sharply, since they are in a stage of flux each time the FED makes an announcement. As far as today goes, it would not surprise me to see some dramatic moves lower ahead of the announcement. . . despite a relatively flat futures market. But as far down as we are, I do not fear any re-test of the April 4 lows. . .and am happy to ride it out. So regarding my personal view moving forward, I lean toward the bargain hunter. . . [though quick to take profits on swings until the retest is complete]. . . then once the retest is complete, I turn considerably longer-term bullish. If the retest is not completed this time around, then I believe we get stuck in a tight trading range from July 16 through September 3rd, where I would be near-term bearish as we would begin to resume our retest of the April 4 low. If this is the case, I would not turn bullish until some time during the first half of October. But at that point, would be FULLY long-term bullish. . .for the first time in quite a while. Rande Is

To: Rande Is who wrote (52710)	6/27/2001 9:26:14 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Well I do believe Germany is in recession. All I look at is facts, not guess work. West

To: Rande Is who wrote (52710)	6/27/2001 6:42:06 PM
From: pbull	Respond to of 57584

Rande, thank you for your thoughts. Financial journalism has become a cesspool of misinformation, in my opinion, and perhaps that leads others to poorly calculated conclusions. It's always nice to see a well-reasoned, clearly articulated explanation of market behavior. PB

To: Rande Is who wrote (52710)	6/28/2001 1:41:51 AM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Finally, what you won't hear very often are analysts saying the economic indicators are not that bad, the economy is going to improve, earnings will begin to improve, we have the rate cuts kicking in during 2002, many techs are undervalued here, it is time to start bargain hunting. You're kidding right? If not, you're obviously not listening to CNBC, MSNBC, or CNN because they have a continuous parade of analysts asserting unequivocally that "the bottom is in" and "now is the time to buy" yada, yada, yada. That is all I hear whenever I turn on the TV. In fact that's all I've heard since the Naz was at 5100. Only after I stop hearing all the "get in now before it's too late" will I even consider going long into tech. best... LIG