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To: Tom M who wrote (110374)	6/27/2001 5:25:19 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

Tom, the US consumer is the most saturated, and most heavily indebted among the industrial nations...the debt creation process which has embarked on a non-linear path since the early 50's has finally reached its limits imo...the mountain of debt has grown so large that it simply doesn't matter anymore if rates are cut, taxes reduced, and whatnot. it's OVER...the retrenchment process has begun. i firmly believe that we're on the cusp of a huge confidence crisis...one that it will be impossible to manipulate away. in this context, the state of Japan's banking system looks ever more dubious...the last remaining anchor of the financial system there is the huge bubble in the JGB market, and i suspect that the trigger for a confidence crisis will emanate from there. the state of the global economic periphery is eerily reminiscent of the early 30's...the decade long on/off crisis in Japan, the collapse of the Argentine economy, the increasing trade tensions worldwide, the refusal of the markets to respond to the printing presses. imo the situation is far more serious than officialdom is letting on. listening to the sanguine 'don't worry the next boom is just around the corner' speeches by O'Neill one would think nothing is amiss. we'll c....