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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4184)	6/27/2001 4:29:47 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

No problem John.... And thanks for mentioning my comments in that, now famous, post... :0) Btw, you're right to be watching the price of gasoline. Bubbles have the same impact in any market, including commodities. Gasoline, NatGas, and Oil, all had bubbles, some similar to the Nasdaq parabolic of 2000. Thus, many producers have hedged into that bubble, selling forward their production and locking in their profits, and deployed cash to now fulfill those contracts by increasing, or commencing exploitation of known reserves. But what's more telling is the impact oil has on other sectors of the market. One of the signs of a economic bottom is when the XOI starts to decline. Today it was down 14 points, or 2.63%, continuing a downward trend back to bottom arm of the uptrend line: finance.yahoo.com^XOI&d=c&t=1y&l=on&z=b&q=l Now compare that to other sectors where fuel is a major expense, like the transports, which was up 55 points, or 2.12%. This will cut logistical costs for manufacturers. finance.yahoo.com^DJT&d=c&t=1y&l=on&z=b&q=l Now all we need is to get the BKX to fall in line, and we'll have forward looking signs that the recession will be averted. However, given the tremendous excesses that have to be written off for banks, one might have to look at insurance and other financial sector issues for a sign, or possibly the regional bank index which may profit at the expense of their bigger brethren who delved into Telecom debt issuances. Btw, if the dollar declines, we'll need a commensurate decline in overall oil prices to continue the opposite moves between the XOI and DJT.. But a decline in the dollar would certainly bode well for those companies that export overseas. But it would certainly apply additional pressures on foreign competitors who rely upon our markets. Hawk

To: John Pitera who wrote (4184)	6/27/2001 4:52:44 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

John, XNG P&F chart.....coming down to the Bullish support line, a break below $208 would be unbullish. We have a couple of lower highs too with a generally rounding top. stockcharts.com Light crude looking like it wants to head to $20. A break below $26 could make it a rather rapid trip. stockcharts.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (4184)	6/28/2001 10:49:30 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 33421

Trucking and Freight, Chemical (lower ng input costs), fertilizer (as before), Agriculture (which suffers from both energy costs and higher fertilizer costs). Some of the airlines have long term fuel contracts, and some are completely exposed. Didn't look at the autos, but the if I did, I'd look at the parts suppliers, not the actual co's. Maybe a stealth play on large cars is the pge explorers/miners. pdl.to comes to mind. I've been down this path before, and concluded that I'd be better just selling energy, and then staying short the trashier stocks in the XNG and XOI. Assoc. shorts; the fad fuel cell stocks, uranium stocks, coal, solar power. Notice how Cali hasn't had a brownout this summer?