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To: SecularBull who wrote (8589)	6/27/2001 8:01:59 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10934

Assuming they make 0.20 in calendar year 2001, they would have to double earnings every year, to reach EPS of 3.20 in 2005. If they do that, they probably deserve a PE >> 30. I doubt that's possible. We will probably get a rebound in earnings, when IT spending comes back. But that might not happen till 2H02, and it's a one-shot deal. After that, a growth rate of 30% and multiple of 30 is possible, if everything good that can happen does happen.

To: SecularBull who wrote (8589)	7/5/2001 4:43:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10934

ST predictions (next 6 months): I use that label when I post my short-term guessing, so people who want to talk about the longterm picture can skip it. Well, we've had the bounce off the new low. It's a lower low, taking out the April low, so the pattern of lower lows is intact. The trend is (still) down. However, it wasn't that much lower, raising the possibility of a double bottom. The crucial question now is: are we in the process of forming a base (in which case loading up in the 11-13 area is the right move), or are we still in the strong downtrend that's existed since the 2000 top (in which case widely spaced buy orders down to 5 is the right move). In either case, the stock is unlikely to take off; a sustainable rally over 27 is unlikely, for at least the next several months. So, I think I can continue to be patient, and wait for my price, because I think I've got time to accumulate a position. Lots of time. And, I think selling in increments in the 17-27 area (or selling covered calls against a LT long position) is almost certainly the right move, for the next several months. And I've also got cash. I vigorously sold the January and April rallies. If we retest the April lows on the Nas, I'll be back to 100% long (as I was then). My orders to buy QCOM at 45 and 40 didn't quite clear, on the recent market selloff, and now the good news for them makes it less likely I'll ever get my price on QCOM, so I'm looking for other things to buy. I might up my buy order on QCOM to 50. The immediate bounce off the recent low for NTAP looks to have run its course. Now we go on to retest those lows. If we stay above 10.5 for the rest of July, then I will feel more comfortable buying 2004 calls in the 11-13 area, in increments. Maybe buy a few every month. Using limit orders, of course. I think investors have written off the rest of (calendar year) 2001. So, bad news about the current quarter and next, IMO, is not going to push stocks down. However, a rebound in business conditions around the beginning of 2002 is priced into stocks. Everyone is making hopefull comments about 1Q02. But no one has any good way to predict business conditions that far out. I can guess, you can guess, but it's a random variable in the equation. The odds are with me if I bet against the crowd (=sell the rally) when the rosy scenario is priced in. Investors are also pricing in inflation remaining under 4%, and GDP growth remaining positive, and there is a not-small chance of disappointment on both those expectations. So, a significant downside risk still remains, for NTAP and all the other Gorillas.