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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (38279)	6/27/2001 4:56:14 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

in the next 3-4 months, the earth will stand still that is, in business terms on the natural wonders perspective, another story tidal waves will become a spectator sport once in a while I like to view the world in decade terms the 1997 Asian Meltdown was extremely wild and woolly it started in August-Sept 1997 in Thailand, Korea, HongKingKong it didnt finish its reverberations until Russia defaulted in Sept 1998 it represented a late ill for an historic expansion in the decade of the 1990's the entire premise was Asia's overcapacity, irresponsible expansion, expectation of ever-growing demand the keyword here is overcapacity now we are dealing withe indigestion of the climax of that overcapacity clearly the US and rest of the world successfully dealt with the Y2K "problem" well, we did, definitely too well businesses fixed not only the Y2K bug, but replaced ancient inefficient systems they may have overdone it forget the excessive encouragement of expanding capital by the Fed prior and the excessive discouragement of expanding capital by the Fed post the problem is and was OVERCAPACITY if the Asian Meltdown and resulting Defaults came from the same error in overcapacity... and Y2K brought about a global overcapacity... THEN DOESNT IT MAKE SENSE TO EXPECT ANOTHER SHOCK WAVE DUE TO THE SAME ROOT CAUSE -- OVERCAPACITY ??? if we had an historic decade, we must be due for an historic indigestion MOTHER OF ALL BELCHES the essential difference I see is that in 1997-98 it happened very very suddenly bamm, Asia hit an effing wall, slammed economies and markets now, we have a very very slowmotion bleeding phenomenon but one extending from the same root cause the slow bleed is occurring among economies and financial markets I contend we are in for new climactic shock waves I contend the Asian Meltdown was a warning tremor and a Near Global Meltdown is threatening it WOULD happen if not for quick Federal Reserve numbnut action why this summer? because summer is most vulnerable why August? because of annual vacations in unison among western world why happen at all? because we are suffering from IRRATIONAL FAITH appreciate any intelligent debate on OVERCAPACITY, Asian Meltdown redux, shock waves and just so nobody is disappointed in my failure to use my favorite metaphor get ready for TSUNAMI, coming T minus 35 days any lunar cycles to be aware of??? just kidding / Jim /jw