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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Johnson who wrote (19057)	6/27/2001 11:08:24 PM
From: gfs_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

27/7.....The Nasdaq exceeded 2078 today, which turned the Weekly Chart up. Normally an upturn in the Weekly Chart means that higher prices are coming at least very short term. However, we stated that the Fed news would be a significant factor in the direction of the market short term today, and that was the case. The argument we have heard from the press for the most part after the Fed news, is that today's action might end the period of easing by the Fed this year, and that that would be bearish for the market. We have stated many times over the years that the direction of interest rates is not in itself a primary determinant of the direction of stock prices. Confidence is far more important to the direction of stock prices than interest rates. It is the loss of confidence that has held the Dow and the Nasdaq back this year. For now there is not enough evidence that the rally which began off the March lows of this year has truly ended. In fact, given the Cycles forecast, we believe the odds favor some sort of bottom being seen between here and Friday, in line with the Cycles forecast for a probable low near June 28, plus or minus 1 day. Any decline below 10411 on a print basis tomorrow will signal a test of 10394. If 10394 is broken tomorrow a stronger decline will follow short term. However, this will not alter our position that we are near at least a short-term low in this time frame.... Brief Jerry Favors analysis