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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtech who wrote (40069)	6/28/2001 10:20:59 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

I appreciate your views, I have seen Japan have been following it far too long and I think no relevant comparisons can be made with US economy. I would think that Nikkei chart over last 10 years studied in comparison to NAZ or even DOW would have to be placed on side by side with, lets say leading indicators of Japan and US, their the story gets different and all the comparisons have to be thrown out of the window. Do you know what are the leading indicators for Japan right now??? You will be surprised to see that comparisons of the leading indicators between US and Japan and that will reveal to you a story why DOW is not Nikkei and will never be. Next Industrial production and capacity utilization, housing starts, massive government spending and debt to kick start economy plus the wretched state of Japanese public and private finance and the banks, their are no similarities, Nikkei downfall was associated with Banking sector collapse, and real estate sector going to dogs, on both these counts we are doing great here in Europe as well as US. I beg to differ and point your attention to BKX index you may be surprised to see that it is hitting new highs or very close to that, partial charts are gimmickry based quick solutions, you need to study certain position with relevant reference points. Nikkei banking sector was bleeding to death as Nikkei made its huge recession based fall in the hole. Sometime surpluses are bad and sometime lack of spending is much worst what constitutes a threat to US financial system that of consumer debt in my humble opinion is the one strong point of the US economy. US consumers spend themselves out of the slow downs AND I don't need to go too far, housing sector is enough of an indication. I should have seen a massive slow down if your scenario is correct. OPEC oil prices drop is much anticipated, it has nothing to do with religion or our superficial understanding of the politics of oil, if you remember in our discussions of the past I always hinted oil to be dead, you were very bullish expecting 45$ plus, I was of hte opinion that oil prices above 24$ are death for oil producing countries as new oil comes on line and destroys the fine balance between supply and demand. Once that relationship is broken there is no end to the fall. The huge differences between Saudi production cost and North sea oil production is the name of the game, the arbitrage is possible at 24$ but near to impossible at 15$, Saudis are in predicament on one hand are the threats short term from failing oil prices that will destroy their budgets based on average of 16$ / barrel and the o other one the tragedy of future that oil may remain un-used if price rise too much as alternate resources and economy of usage may break that fragile balance. Oil lower will be good for the markets the commodity producing world had its cycle and have benefited from it and it is time that we get some rationalization for transfer of wealth back to OECD. <Iqbal, my deepest respects to you and your family.Tell your son I watch rmbs daily to cheer him on.> They are very very busy and have no time to post, once they will finish they will be back.