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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (19073)	6/28/2001 12:45:19 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

The initial impact will be to accelerate a little the decline in the energy sector, the benefits (reduction of inflationary pressures and "release" of some liquidity into the economy), will take a little longer. If the trend continue, it will actually support the turnip's scenario of a very powerful ally later this year and during the first half of next year. Thus the impact on the scenario is secondary, and at best could increase the upside for the bull next year. Since my target there is already "extremely generous" at 3800 (and possibly as high as 4200) or so on the Naz, I am not going to increase those targets. By the way some decrease in crude (not to $20, but to the $23/$26 area) was "factored in" the long term scenario as a potentiality. That was easy, since it has been the Saudi policy for quite some times to prevent crude from getting so high that huge alternative sources of crude (profitable above about $28/barrel, like Canadian shale oil deposits) would be developed. By the way, I doubt we are going to go into a secular bear market in the energy sector as we did few years back when crude sank to around $10, any time soon. Zeev