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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (11230)	6/28/2001 9:30:12 AM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Fred- Its funny, but I never traded XLNX in my life.. never even looked at it which is weird considering the bizillion trades it seems like ive done.. but it looks like same old story- bloated price, hard hit by economic conditions, job cuts... I mean a 32% decline next quarter in revenue??? and Im seeing it bidding at 40 1/2 now... This is one of the reasons I had to step away for a few days there.. My head was hurting from spinning.. Take for example the closing news from yesterday 'Stocks unhappy with fed cut', then this morning I see the futures up and the headline reads 'investors optomistic on fed action'.. huh? no wonder average joe investor is perplexed... Nothing has changed where I sit.. I think the entire semi sector should be cut at least 20% from where they are trading at.. I look back at my trades against the sector the last 2 months, and realize now that it was pure luck I walked away a winner each time.. Any skill/wisdom I have from working in the sector each day actually should have done more to hurt me if not for my lucky covers. I just dont understand the divergence between fundamentals and the actual trading in these stocks.. I may take a few small shorts out one last time in INTC, MU, and maybe even CCMP today but the stops are going to be tight enough so that I may stop out by end of day tomorrow.. Its actually an ideal time to short considering that if these stocks start to break they are really going to explode up.. but same goes for the downside going into next week with light volume..No need to put a loos stop to fight the volatility because any break should be for real at this level.. Zeev has me watching AMAT as an indicator- with 52 1/2 as the 'key' point.. and somehow, God only knows how, but when he pulls these numbers out of his hat hes usually dead on..