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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (208)	6/28/2001 6:10:18 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 1328

Microsoft ideaadvisor.com Compaq ideaadvisor.com

To: Les H who wrote (208)	6/28/2001 11:17:15 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 1328

Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, June 29th. (excerpts) The stock market appears as if it just cannot get itself going. The Trading Index numbers have been overwhelmingly bullish for a few weeks now, but so far to no avail. As we pointed out at the end of last week, this week is an important one because a further decline this week could have meant an invalidation of the significantly higher upside projections that have been generated. There is still a risk that the upside projections will be invalidated, at least on a preliminary basis. In fact, the S&P 500 cash index should theoretically close above 1243 tomorrow in order to avoid a preliminary invalidation of its upside projection. For the New York Composite Index, the number is far more reasonable. Remember, the New York Composite index tends to be the most consistently accurate of all the indices when it comes to giving projections. Tomorrow, the New York Composite Index needs to close above 623.35 in order to avoid giving a preliminary invalidation of its nominal 20 week upside projection. The equivalent number for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in order to avoid a preliminary invalidation of its 20 week upside projection requires a close above 10,580. As you can see, the New York Composite Index and the Dow industrials have a relatively easy task before them. As we reviewed the Trading Index numbers of the past several weeks, it became clear to us that, even if we have not seen a final bottom, the final low should be no more than a few weeks away and it should end up being an important one. If there is a final leg to the downside prior to an important low, the decline could be fast and precipitous. Remember, we still favor the scenario that says a bottom has been seen, but if that is not the case, the Dow could very quickly fall to the 9800 level and the New York Composite Index to around 580. Those are the numbers that we get from the projection charts, but we must emphasize those projections have not been given. Today, the McClellan oscillator moved into positive territory with a reading of + 4.0. Yesterday we neglected to tell you that the potentially bullish pattern we spoke about on Tuesday did occur as the McClellan oscillator closed at -30.4, displaying a pattern of higher lows and higher highs short term. Today the simple 10 day TRIN closed at 1.24, the Open 10 at 1.16, and the New 10 at 0.88. There are no new projections for the XAU. September bonds gave and met a downside projection to 101 ± 7/32, and gave a preliminary nominal 20 day downside projection to around 99 3/4, although that projection has not been confirmed. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. stockmarketcycles.com