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To: Don Lloyd who wrote (2573)6/28/2001 5:41:50 PM
From: ElsewhereRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 24758
 
My concerns for Germany, and the US, for that matter, relate to the intermediate term future, say 10 to 50 years out.

Yes, projecting the aging process of the populations in industrial nations doesn't result in pleasant scenarios. But I don't worry about it. It is surprising how fast the political climate has changed in Germany. Last year the first Green Card regulation was introduced. There were protests against the admission of a few thousand IT specialists. One year later everybody is happy: the employers, who finally found qualified employees, and the card holders - Indians, for instance, have a few hours less to travel to India from Frankfurt than from Silicon Valley. Now an increase of the number of issued cards is planned, and some people start to raise their voice that other business sectors need qualified immigrants, too. An institute even suggested a number of 2-400,000 immigrants per year otherwise the economy would decline too much. Nobody would have dared to discuss this topic publicly just a few years ago. The possibility exists that concentration gradients between too many poor people on one side and "too much wealth" on the other side can be solved by diffusion processes over time. The realization of this option depends on whether the unavoidable frictions can be smoothed sufficiently.