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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52705)	6/28/2001 8:31:35 PM
From: mu_basher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Zeev I have no dispute about your conception of the "Death of the PC". Certainly there will always be a demand from new sources (buyers) and replacements as time marches on. I agree 100% that the hedonistic growth cycle of the past has & will diminish more with maturity in the industry. The PC has made its mark and will always have an important role in US and world economies. But what I wonder is just how strong that "outside world is still starving for luxury" will translate into actuality - sales and profits. Its one thing to actually have the desire (want) and at the same time do it. Unless prices sink so low that they give them away will economic conditions of the outside world allow those people to buy them??? Wouldn't you think that other more basic needs such as food, housing, health care etc.. far exceed that "luxury" of having a PC. I guess the time frame of the scenario will tell us - if economic conditions improve significantly for those people then maybe PC's will score a big hit and provide the impetus you refer to. Then again maybe not. I'm really a strong believer that the changes facing United States has been downplayed. The one last area of great wealth that has not been taped is the inheritance factor. Many boomers are sitting in positions of receiving large inheritances from parents that have ridden that crest of 1929 depression, WWII and Post War Boom . I'm not sure how that is going to play out.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52705)	6/28/2001 9:47:33 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hi Zeev Hed; Re Moore's law... I agree that eventually the PC stagnates. I agree that eventually the smallest feasible "transistors" become commonplace. I agree that Moore's law, which I'm going to (mis)define as CPU performance, will eventually run out, but it will be some time off still. The major areas left to work on (that I can think of are): (1) Vertical integration (stacked chips). This would allow CPUs with something like the 1.5th power of how many transistors you can fit in a horizontal area. That's something like another 10 ~ 15 years of Moore's law. (2) Multiprocessing. Right now, only a couple instructions can execute at a time. Theoretical maximum is billions of times more parallel. I'm guessing that there is about 5 years of Moore's law available here. (3) Asynchronous logic. Synchronous logic really removes a lot of performance from today's systems. They are knocking on this barrier, eventually we'll be forced to explore it, and the improvement in performance is about equivalent to another 3 years of Moore's law. I'm guessing that another 25 years of Moore's law will "bless" us. At the end of that time, home computers will be superhuman in power. Right now, they're still dumb as planaria. While there are currently no uses for computers of that speed, I have no doubt that we will find stupid things for them to do. At the same time, I believe that the trend towards the average computer being cheaper will continue. That is, there is less and less reason to be on the cutting edge of computer power, and this will reduce the amount that each computer can be sold for. All this means, in terms of the increase in computer power over time, is that there will be a slowly increasing delay between when a new technology becomes possible and when it is actually implemented. This would result in a decrease in income to the computer design firms, but at the same time, the market is increasing due to the world's becoming wealthier. Consequently, I see a more or less stable industry (overall) for the next few decades. That doesn't mean that I think that the companies currently on top will remain there, just that the industry will still exist. -- Carl P.S. I think MU will be under $20 by a year from now.