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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (17680)	6/28/2001 8:43:49 PM
From: George Papadopoulos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

From Stratfor NATO's Entry into Macedonia Will Mean Victory for Militants 1700 GMT, 010627 Summary NATO is pressing Macedonia's government to give in to the demands of Albanian militants while preparing to move alliance troops into the region. NATO's entry into Macedonia will be a victory for the militants. By luring NATO in as an unwitting ally, Albanian guerrillas will achieve by peaceful means what they were unable to do through military action. Dissent within Macedonia's army, opposition groups and the general population will likely topple the current pro-Western government. Analysis On June 25, NATO and U.S. troops escorted 500 Albanian rebels, with all their weapons, from a village under attack by the Macedonian army to a rebel-held village to the north, Agence France-Presse reported. The event sparked a massive violent protest in Skopje, where 6,000 Macedonian Slavs, including army and police reservists, stormed the Parliament and chased away President Boris Trajkovski. 6,000 Macedonian Slavs stormed the Parliament in Skopje and chased away President Boris Trajkovski on June 25, 2001. NATO is continuing efforts to reach an accord between the government and the rebels under which the country would be transformed into a two-nation state, with NATO troops presiding over disarmament of the guerrillas. To avoid taking casualties, NATO is pressing the Macedonian government to give in to the demands of the rebels to avoid a confrontation. NATO's entry into Macedonia will be a victory for the militants, allowing them to achieve more of their demands. The resulting protests over concessions given to the rebels will lead to the toppling of the current pro-Western government. NATO plans to go into Macedonia and transform it into a two-nation state, creating a new Kosovo with Albanian militants effectively controlling all Albanian-populated parts of the country. NATO forces, however, will be unable to stop the guerrillas' terror campaign against non-Albanians. Albanian-populated parts of Macedonia will be effectively severed from Macedonia and run by Albanian militants and organized crime syndicates. As in Bosnia and Kosovo, NATO troops will have to stay in the country indefinitely, or major fighting will resume immediately after their departure. Macedonia's government will be torn apart between the necessity to preserve the country's integrity and NATO demands for peace with the Albanian rebels instead of war. By seeking to avoid conflict, NATO is unwittingly siding with the rebels, and the situation in Macedonia and the Balkans will further deteriorate. Since most Macedonians want the government to wipe out the rebels and preserve the country's current status, massive protests or even an uprising are likely to topple Trajkovski's government, paving the way to a confrontation between the new Macedonian government and NATO. NATO troops on the ground would be exposed to attacks in a hostile environment, where the population will see them as collaborators with Albanian militants. If a new Macedonian government does not confront NATO, the Albanians will achieve a victory. The Albanians, emboldened by NATO protection, will strengthen their hold on Kosovo and one-third of Macedonia while expanding their Greater Albania campaign over other parts of the Balkans, such as southern Serbia, Montenegro and northern Greece. Rebels are resuming their attacks on Serbian police in the buffer zone between Kosovo and Serbia, despite the fact that their withdrawal from the area was recently negotiated under NATO supervision. Serbia's Srna agency reports that the latest attack occurred on June 25, when guerrillas ambushed a Serbian police patrol. The Albanians will benefit from an increased NATO presence, as the alliance has been pursuing a conciliatory policy toward the rebels. NATO does not want a military engagement with the rebels and is actively pushing the Macedonian government to accept their demands, saying there will be no aid to Macedonia until a peace agreement is reached. EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten told Macedonian Foreign Minister Ilinka Mitreva June 25, "There is little we can do in terms of financial support until there is a political settlement," UPI reported. But Macedonia's government would be crippled if it accepted the Albanians' demands. Though formally the country's Albanians call for creating a federation, the central government in Skopje would have no control over one-third of the country. The Albanians are also demanding the appointment of an Albanian vice president in the government with the right to veto any presidential decision, a move that would lead to complete paralysis of central government activities and create a situation where only Albanian-supported initiatives are adopted. While NATO is continuing to pressure Macedonia for concessions, the Albanians will stick to their demands until Macedonia's government caves in under alliance pressure or falls due to public protests by the Slav majority. By pushing Macedonia into accepting Albanian demands, NATO seems to not understand that this will serve the purposes of Albanian militants in the region, who will gradually take political, economic and military control over a considerable part of the Balkans while using NATO forces as protection. Though they have different names, the Albanian rebel forces in Kosovo, southern Serbia and Macedonia in fact represent a united force, with the militant structures of the Kosovo Liberation Army at the core. Albanian insurgency would be impossible in Macedonia if there was no major support from Kosovo. Experienced Kosovo fighters can penetrate through the porous border to Macedonia almost at will. A KFOR spokesman told the Tanjug news agency that in the past few days seven NLA insurgents were detained while crossing the border from Kosovo. KFOR members also seized a sizeable quantity of arms and ammunition intended for Albanian forces in Macedonia. Giving in to the rebels' demands would likely embolden these forces and prolong the conflict further.