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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (19278)	6/29/2001 12:28:16 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 30051

<<Since market is in 2nd year of being down at mid year, I would bet even money that we close 2001 higher than Friday's close. Meaning market will be up on average more than down in next six months.>> Hmmm. What's the reasoning here? I think you're probably right that the market will close higher in December than it does tomorrow, but do you have statistical evidence on the "down at midyear" statement? Also, whether we're higher or not doesn't mean that there won't be some wild gyrations along the way. If the period since October 1998 has taught anything, it's that 20% moves just ain't as infrequent as they used to be. I don't see any reason why hitting 1850 is unlikely between here and December, even if I 100% knew we'd be higher on December 31. Certainly from a fundamentals standpoint, it would be easy to justify lower prices (but I'm with Larry on this. . . I just don't know until it happens). the freep

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (19278)	6/29/2001 12:38:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

If the market is up more than down in the next 6 months then I may go broke. I am bucking the turnips here on record. I was very fearful of this "rally" as indicated by my posts on window dressing before this rally ever started. Turnips are far more accurate then me, but every damn time I follow them (excect FEB massacre) I choose the wrong ones. I had a far lower low in FEB than ZEEV and it hit. Once again on record I say this is over by the 6th of JULY at the latest and quite honestly tomorrow would not surprise me one bit. I want 1850 sometime by SEPT and although I am not sure of the catalyst I am convinced we see it. At 2350 I go nuclear short. 2350 is so far beyond absurd that I can not even think about it. As best as I can see this is identical to the snapback rally on the DOW that brought it back over 11K only to fall straight down. They are forcing every last short out before the big plunge. When is it? Well Zeev could be right at 2300, but I say this rally is over soon. How long was it before the DOW broke 11000 that it plunged. 3-4 days (someone check). How many shorts were forced out on that rally right before the plunge? If we get to 2350 someone please remind me to put 100% of my net worth into DEC QQQ puts cause we are going down and 1400 may not even hold. M