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To: wily who wrote (75137)	6/29/2001 3:05:09 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi wily; Re RDRAM manufacturing costs &c... I assume by "RDRAM" you mean "RIMM", which includes the extra costs of the fancy PCB and the heat spreader. I've stated repeatedly that I expect the costs and prices of RIMMs to drop to around 50% over the costs and prices of SDRAM and DDR DIMMs. But man, I sure am waiting. Most of the high price now is due to the following facts: (1) There are still relatively few suppliers of RDRAM, so there is a bit of a monopoly effect. (2) Unlike the case with Micron and DDR, no memory maker is pushing to make RDRAM mainstream. This is because they know it can't be done. RDRAM has higher costs that add up to around a 50% premium, and this is too high to allow RDRAM to become mainstream. (3) The memory makers are pretty sure that 4Q01 is going to be the peak quarter for RDRAM production and from there it will decline. The R&D for RDRAM was expensive, and so is the cost to convert an SDRAM line over to RDRAM. Since the RDRAM market will contract after the end of the year, those lines will only be able to produce RDRAM for relatively short periods of time. Most memory lines are run for about 3 years, RDRAM lines are being set up to run for only about 1 year. Anyway, the short run time means that the R&D and setup costs have to be amortized over a much shorter period than with DDR or SDRAM. Regarding (2) and Micron's driving DDR prices down, it is probably important to note that Micron's DDR is the most standard, in terms of being compatible with the most motherboards, and also the most stable and overclockable, according to the benchmark sites. (In fact, I've never seen a report of Micron DDR being incompatible with anything, while there have been plenty of reports of other makers' DDR having problems.) From this, I would say that Micron's strategy is to make themselves the DDR type that all other types are compared against. It will likely sell for a premium (over other DDR types) by the end of the year. -- Carl