To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19442 ) 6/29/2001 9:40:04 PM From: Dealer Respond to of 30051 CMRC up 37% today--After it lowers its outlook!!! ON The Move: UPDATE: Analyst: Commerce One Will Be Bought by SAP Friday June 29, 1:38 pm Eastern Time biz.yahoo.com ************************************************* Commerce One lowers outlook; shrs soar on SAP deal (UPDATE: recasts headline, adds conference call details, analyst comment, details throughout) By Siobhan Kennedy NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Commerce One on Friday cut its quarterly revenue forecast for the second time, but shares of the troubled business-to-business software firm soared 28 percent on news of a timely $222 million investment from SAP AG, Europe's largest software company. ADVERTISEMENT Commerce One Inc. (NasdaqNM:CMRC - news) shares, which have lost almost half their value in recent weeks, climbed $1.19 to $5.45 in late afternoon Nasdaq trade and were among the market's top four percentage gainers. SAP (NYSE:SAP - news) on Friday said it would quintuple its investment in Commerce One, raising the German software company's stake in the business-to-business firm to 20 percent from 4 percent previously. ``We felt it's time now to make a big investment and basically increase the bond we have with Commerce One to address the lucrative private exchange market,'' SAP Chief Executive, Hasso Plattner said on a conference call on Friday. The investment comes at a critical time for Pleasanton, California-based Commerce One, whose shares have been tumbling in recent weeks amid market speculation that SAP was about to call off its partnership with the U.S. firm. The companies got together last year to form an alliance to go after the market for B-to-B online exchanges, which bring together buyers and suppliers over the Web in industries ranging from automotive to retail. But earlier this month, rumors started circulating that the partnership was on shaky ground. Plattner denied those rumors, characterizing SAP's relationship with Commerce One as ``just the beginning of the new level of our co-operation.'' ``We feel very comfortable that Commerce One is the right partner,'' Plattner said. ``We make a major investment here because we see a huge business opportunity.'' Still, investors reacted nervously to SAP's support for Commerce One, which has also recently lost its president to AOL Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:AOL - news) and failed to gain shareholder support for its conversion into a holding company. SAP shares were down as much as 5 percent during trading on Friday, but recovered somewhat, to close down 2 percent, at 164.08 euros, on the Frankfurt stock exchanges. BALL AND CHAIN U.S analysts were mixed in their reaction to the news. Whereas some saw it as a good move for SAP in one of its two key business areas, others expressed concern about Commerce One's increasing dependence on the software giant. In recent quarters, Commerce One has derived up to 30 percent of its revenues from the SAP alliance. ``This has gone from being a partnership to more of a ball and chain for SAP.'' Bruce Richardson, an analyst with industry research firm, AMR Research in Boston said. Richardson said there had been no mention of the new investment at SAP's user conference in Orlando, Florida earlier this month. ``And now two weeks later there's a late-night bailout?'' Richardson said. The real question is ``How long does that cash bailout last?'' he added. The investment also limits Commerce One's opportunity to partner with anyone else, and decreases the likelihood of another company acquiring Commerce One, Steve Bowen, an analyst with First Analysis Securities said. SAP, for its part, said the terms of the deal limited it from increasing its stake beyond 23 percent, and a spokesman noted that Plattner had repeatedly said he was not interested in a outright acquisition of Commerce One. Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Brent Thill cautioned that while Commerce One said it was optimistic about the second half of 2001, major rivals are gearing up to put pressure on the company. ``We expect new initiatives by i2 Technologies Inc. (NasdaqNM:ITWO - news) and Oracle Corp. (NasdaqNM:ORCL - news) will further compound competitive issues,'' Thill said. CRITICAL TIMING The investment news came as Commerce One cut its second-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $100 million to $120 million -- 25 to 38 percent below Wall Street's already lowered expectations. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call on average expected the company to post revenues of $162 million. Mark Hoffman, Commerce One's Chief Executive, said that increasing pressure from the U.S. economy and the need to get executive-level sign off on deals had lengthened its sales cycle. The amount of time it takes to close a customer deal is now between 6 and 9 months. ``We're just working through that lengthening sales cycle during this period,'' Hoffman said, adding that SAP and Commerce One had signed a number of big marketplace deals in the quarter. In addition, the company announced a realignment of its service organization, bringing it under the same umbrella as the sales team for the first time. Hoffman hinted that reorganization would lead to layoffs but he refused to provide any more details about the restructuring until the company's second quarter earnings conference call on July 19.