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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (389)	6/29/2001 7:23:10 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

nice article, thank you very much. here's an interesting article as well. it should be noted that the author is the same bozo who in 1999 believed the dow was fairly valued at 36,000 right then, but accepted that it might take 5 years to get there. that means he predicted dow 36,000 by 2004. i suppose it's possible, but...well if it reached 36k we might need a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread ;-) to make matters worse he likes those worthless inflation adjusted treasury bonds! i feel much better about being bullish on commodities for the next decade now that i read this guy! this guy is some piece of work. he wrote an article saying stocks are not overvalued on march 30, 1998 right at the exact top in the broad markets! ................................................................................................................................ This article appeared in The Washington Post on September 12, 1999. Dow 36,000: The Case for a New Stock Market Model aei.org We first made our views known on March 30, 1998, with the Dow Jones industrial average at 8782. The article was headlined, "Are Stocks Overvalued? Not a Chance." We say in the book that the Dow should be at 36,000 today, but that realistically the process should take about five years. That's a growth rate of roughly 25 percent annually, not so outlandish considering the record since 1982. And, of course, the Dow is up more than 20 percent this year already. Stay Away From Things; Invest in Brains June 26, 2001 foliofn.com Don't worry. Over the years, I have grown to loathe commodity stocks - especially gold and silver. There is not the slightest reason to own them. In the past, you might have bought such companies - or the metals themselves -- as a hedge against inflation, but the new Treasury Inflation-Protection bonds work much better, guaranteeing a real interest rate of 3 percent to 4 percent annually plus the increase in the Consumer Price Index. There is a simple reason to stay away from such stocks. When you buy them, you are betting on commodities - on things. When you buy shares in a more conventional software firm or retailer, on the other hand, you are betting on people - or, more precisely, on the human imagination, and that's the force that has powered the world economy for the past two centuries. Gold, silver and copper have been around forever, but it is only human capital, unleashed in a society that values competition and property rights, that creates true widespread wealth. ............................................................................................................................. Take this year for example. Commodity stocks have rallied for no good reason - except perhaps that they were so low. Gold itself has been stagnant, ending 1998 at $291 an ounce; 1999 at $284 an ounce; and 2000 at $271. Now it's a few bucks higher. Silver is actually down for the year, as are soybeans and coffee (to pick a couple of staples at random). The question that the precious-metals - and natural resources - investor must ask is this: Do you want to put your trust in things or brains? Things are fine in a period of rampant inflation or in an economy where brains aren't free to do their work because of excessive regulation, high taxes or cartels. Right now, at least, brains have things beat by a mile.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (389)	7/1/2001 8:28:48 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

I thought your survey of the gurus was very interesting. I certainly agree with the results of Ken Roberts. He over simplifies commodity trading. I would like to communicate with someone who is experienced at trading porkbellies. I love em. Sara Lutz

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (389)	7/2/2001 11:34:57 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

CME Pork Alert: Hogs soar limit to new highs after bullish data Chicago, July 2 (BridgeNews) - Lean hog futures soared on the heels of a reduced hog breeding herd in Friday's quarterly hogs and pigs report. Jly through Apr established contract highs, while Oct through Apr were locked limit up. Aug backed off limit-up status. Pork belly futures responded to Friday's data with sharp gains, with Jly and Aug gapping higher to their highest levels in three months. ( Story .3205) ISO estimates 2000-01 world sugar deficit at 3.512 mln tns -- London, July 2 (BridgeNews) - World production in 2000-01 is seen down 2.8% on the year at 129.076 million tonnes, according the International Sugar Organization's third estimate. The ISO pegged world consumption up 2.3% on the year at 132.588 million tonnes to give a world deficit of 3.512 million tonnes raw value. However, the ISO said that large surplus stocks built up over the previous five seasons have covered the production shortfall and prevented a trade deficit. ( Story .12132 ) [B] NY Cotton: New contract lows on acreage, favorable US weather 2-Jul-2001 15:29:36 By Myrle Croasdale Chicago, July 2 (BridgeNews) - New York Cotton Exchange cotton futures plunged amid rain in the mid-South and Georgia during the weekend, which promises to keep the U.S. on track to produce a large crop. Forecasts for favorable weather in the cotton belt in the next two weeks added to the negative tone set Friday by the big increase in U.S. plantings. Oct, Dec, Mar, May and Jly 2002 set contract lows, while thinly traded Jly dove more than 5% briefly. * * * Funds sold 1,000 lots of cotton as new contract lows were made. In Dec, resting sell orders were seen at 42.20 cents per pound and below. A small amount of trade buying was seen near morning session lows. "The funds are finally back in," building on their net short position, a trader said. As of 1110 ET, Dec had set a contract low of 41.54c, its lowest in six sessions. A 25-point gap runs from 42.50 to 42.75c in Dec. Weekend showers were seen in the Delta and Southeast, as well as southern Texas, while West Texas remained hot and dry. The Delta and Southeast have frequent chances for rain during the next two weeks, as a pattern of favorable crop conditions develops over the region. (Stories .3875, .3883) Scattered showers are forecast for northeast China Monday and Tuesday before mostly hot, dry weather returns. The region saw rain over the weekend, though amounts were small. (Story .3859) Traders said Pakistan has seen beneficial showers, and overall world cotton conditions look good. The Cotton Outlook A indices were unchanged for 2000-01 and 2001-02. No new delivery notices were posted for Jly cotton. Certificated stocks are hovering just under 260,000 running bales, with 1,449 awaiting review. (Story .3642) The U.S. dollar remained strong, lingering near a contract high for the Sep futures contract. Trader said the week could be slow, with many participants taking vacation time around the Fourth of July. Final volume for Friday was 4,18 to lots, with 625 still open in Jly. Jly expires on July 9. TRADE AT 1131 ET: Jly down 105 points at 41.70c Oct down 95 points at 40.75c Dec down 116 points at 41.66c Mar down 105 points at 43.15c End