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To: GuitarMan who wrote (110849)	6/29/2001 7:49:03 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

index puts...i concentrate on those exclusively. with the VIX and VXN hitting fresh year-to-date lows today, the put premiums have become very reasonable. an equivalent OEX put that would have cost 5.20 or 5.50 in mid March costs now 3.50 to 3.80, approximately. so purely from the standpoint of volatility premiums, these puts are now cheap. of course that's not a guarantee that they won't become cheaper still - the VIX, which poked its head below 21 for a time today, has on occasion gone even lower. but considering the weak structure of the market (meaning the price structure) and various other indications of market risk (heavy insider selling, big commercial short position in the futures) the current VIX indicates an unwarranted, and extreme degree of complacency. therefore, the puts that nobody seems interested in right now, beg to be bought.