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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (110850)	6/29/2001 7:20:53 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

masterful! maybe he'll take a page from the book you just wrote and modify his approach if not his thinking.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (110850)	6/29/2001 7:37:57 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz: Gold and gold stocks look like they will go somewhat lower near-term. But I agree we are in the early stages of a new bull market. Gold guru Leonard Kaplan who has been bearish for years now counts himself among the bulls. Looks for $300-$310 by year-end. BTW today's stock market action was pathetic considering it was the last day of the quarter and the funds had every incentive to paint the tape a really bright green. I wonder if the much anticipated July rally is over or almost over. Very low VIX and VXN readings inply a big drop after this bounce peters out IMHO.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (110850)	6/30/2001 11:21:27 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>> the CBs also have no reason to 'massively unload in a panic'. for one thing, the largests CB gold holders are signatories to the WAG that limits their gold sales, and for another they all have their gold on the books for $35-$42/oz. it's a reserve asset...why should they 'panic' due to changes in its free market price? << they limited themselves to about 400 tons per year which covers most of the supply deficit. that doesn't take into account thousands of tons of gold not covered in the agreement. central banks might panic when they want to raise cash and they see gold declining in value while it sits there costing them money to store it, doing absolutely no good. furthermore, gold has actually declined since the washington agreement was announced so that tells you it hasn't had any long-term positive benefit. >> saying that gold will tank if the market does, means you think they're correlated << in this particular instance, yes. i never said in every instance there was a correlation. >> the rest of what you're saying is what made me as a contrarian look at gold << i don't have a problem with that. i believe after 20 years it is time to start taking a look at gold. doesn't mean it can't see $200. >> the negative sentiment is pervasive and overwhelming, smells like a bottom << yes it has been pretty negative, but remember in bear markets cheap can become ridiculously cheap and declines can occur for much longer and farther than people expect. just like in bull markets things rise much further than people could ever imagine. >> gold retains its purchasing power during deflationary periods << so you are essentially saying that gold will fall in step with other prices? how is that any consolation? if you hold cash in a deflationary environment your purchasing power increases! >> you keep looking backward instead of forward...you keep ignoring the main point of my argument, << you started this off by ignoring the main point of my argument, which was not to advocate purchasing abx as the best play on gold going forward, but to counter the ludicrous conspiracy theorists who blame abx for their troubles. that's the only point i was trying to make, and then we got sidetracked. >> imo they have already proven otherwise. the gold stock index i'm watching (the HUI, an index of unhedged and lightly hedged gold stocks) has risen from low to high by 100% in a period of roughly 6 months << that has happened on a couple of occasions to the xau in the past 15 years. yet it eventually went on to new lows. i could also give you examples of other markets that have doubled off their lows but were still in bear markets. >> that's not a bear market rally. bear market rallies tend to be over after two months at most << so how would you define a bull market, any rally lasting more than 2 months that rallies what percentage? 100%? 80%? 50%? second of all you are conveniently using a very narrow index (hui) of just a handful of stocks to make your case. gold bullion and the xau haven't performed nearly as well. >> so from a technical standpoint, it's a bull market until proven otherwise. << fine, i guess we will have to disagree. i think it's still a bear market until proven otherwise. >> and i am? << well you made some negatively slanted comments about abx and i have read many columns and websites that many si gold bugs frequent who suggest abx is the worst mining stock and they are part of some conspiracy. so i used your comments as a springboard to air my views on the subject. >> i have to add though that the mechanics of forward sales make it rather obvious that they have CONTRIBUTED to the gold bear market << yeah, well so what. short sellers always exacerbate some downward pressure in any market. they are not the reason for it going down though, at least not for any length of time. eventually the market goes where it wants to anyway. are all short sellers and hedgers part of a big conspiracy? >> market participants are well aware of this. when PDG announced early last year that it would reduce its hedge book, gold rallied over 20 bucks in a single day. << but gold still eventually went back down and made new lows. like i said the market eventually goes wherever it wants to and these hedging activities are not the reason to be attributing the moves in gold. >> the past is not necessarily indicative of the future. the internuts used to be a great investment as well, at one time. << once again my point wasn't to suggest that you should run out and buy abx. my point was that people (not necessarily you per se) that buy into this abx and gold cartel conspiracy bullshit are barking up the wrong tree.