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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33196)	6/30/2001 3:42:26 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69913

[madtrader] Fri Jun 29, 11:53am PDT $VIX.X VIX has been a great indicator for major market tops and bottoms. In the last few years, an extreme high reading of VIX has marked bottoms, and the reverse has marked tops. With VIX just a few ticks above 21, we should all be nervous. And most of the hedge fund types are betting against the tape with this reading in mind. Which is why we are seeing the massive short squeeze in the most oversold names like AMCC, PMCS...However, a break of 21 to the downside (we are almost there now) would be a non-confirm. Which suggests it could head towards the mid teens. And that could be coupled with a rally in the market. Which comes first? A rally then a decline? But a decline that is minor? I am leaning towards that kind of thinking. Why? Because most of the hedge fund types are betting exactly the opposite. You can't really make money by following the crowd. none. [madtrader] Fri Jun 29, 11:43am PDT $SPX.X Well, I hate to disagree with rumordude on this one. With the higher high than yesterday, SPX triggered a long signal. MACD about to cross higher as well. And since it has such high correlation with NDX, the weekly momentum signals are almost idential to NDX. Which is positive for the first time since September of 2000. And I believe the bear market is over. We will of course still have some roller coaster rides. But in general one should find the major indices head higher for the rest of the summer. none. [RumorDude] Fri Jun 29, 11:26am PDT $SPX.X The S&P has been ascting relatively lousy and the weekly chart shows a large rounding top. With VIX so low this should be viewed primarily as a hedge against any more nastiness as opposed to a "get rich quick". Also coming up towards the 200 day, MACD still sour... Long some $SPX.X Jul 1225 puts.