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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19495)	6/30/2001 1:23:12 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev; it would seem that a July decline needs a catalyst. Though we may climb some (or fall some), the ghost of past earnings runups should keep the mkt from going down significantly.... until the big names actually start reporting. I hesitate to call it a rally, even if it rises another 100 pts in the next 2 wks. More like the stairsteppy yoyo of a rally we just went through, which I view as horizontal trading because of the low volatility and lack of clear signals. At some point Monday, the bulls may stage a rally that slightly exceeds Friday, perhaps to 2190. Certain big players went down hard under the veil Friday (IWOV & MCDT for example) which permits room for upside yet. I'm not certain we can break 2200 here. And I'm not sure I can support my speculation with anything concrete after the quicksand NASDy gave us Friday. I should think that will at least shake some complacency outa the mkt. And trust. A coupla other points: in a decline, it's a common saying that the financials are the last to fall. As someone noted here, mortgage rates keep rising, while the Fed keeps cutting. It seems to me the main beneficiary of the cuts to date is the banks. And how long do we think this can continue? How long before the housing consumer says 'Enough!' and confidence is shaken? I sure would not buy homes at these interest rates. On the flip side, the sole justification for any rally scenario has to be energy costs falling more. I haven't followed that index so I can make no projections, but I suspect that will be key to watch. From a non-technical standpoint, can you think of any other pending catalysts besides energy and bad earnings?